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Navigating Uncertainies: Strategies for Rubust Hydrogen QRA

Gustafsson, Simon LU (2024) VRSM01 20241
Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Abstract
Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and
reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA.

This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to... (More)
Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and
reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA.

This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to identify the necessary detail level for QRA studies. Results indicate increased strength of knowledge, though some parameters may not need detailed distributions. Applying this approach broadly could improve QRA robustness and accuracy, especially when scaling facilities from pilot to commercial plants. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Gustafsson, Simon LU
supervisor
organization
course
VRSM01 20241
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Uncertainty Management, Hydrogen, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation and Strength of Knowledge
language
English
id
9170880
date added to LUP
2024-07-30 12:00:05
date last changed
2024-07-30 12:00:05
@misc{9170880,
  abstract     = {{Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and
reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA.

This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to identify the necessary detail level for QRA studies. Results indicate increased strength of knowledge, though some parameters may not need detailed distributions. Applying this approach broadly could improve QRA robustness and accuracy, especially when scaling facilities from pilot to commercial plants.}},
  author       = {{Gustafsson, Simon}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Navigating Uncertainies: Strategies for Rubust Hydrogen QRA}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}