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Nothing Ever Happens: A differences-in-differences analysis on the Belt and Road Initiative’s impact (or lack thereof) on democratic indicators of participant states

Svoboda, Andreas LU (2025) STVK12 20251
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative and changes in democratic governance indicators among participating nations. Using differences-in-differences methodology, event study analysis, and propensity score matching on V-Dem data from 2000-2024, we analyse the impact of BRI participation on electoral democracy, participatory democracy, and political corruption levels. Simple comparisons reveal that BRI countries score 0.3-0.4 points lower on democracy scales and 0.45-0.48 points higher on corruption measures compared to non-BRI countries. However, when controlling for observable economic characteristics and employing fixed effects models, these associations become statistically... (More)
This study examines the relationship between participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative and changes in democratic governance indicators among participating nations. Using differences-in-differences methodology, event study analysis, and propensity score matching on V-Dem data from 2000-2024, we analyse the impact of BRI participation on electoral democracy, participatory democracy, and political corruption levels. Simple comparisons reveal that BRI countries score 0.3-0.4 points lower on democracy scales and 0.45-0.48 points higher on corruption measures compared to non-BRI countries. However, when controlling for observable economic characteristics and employing fixed effects models, these associations become statistically insignificant. The findings indicate that observed correlations primarily reflect China's systematic selection of BRI partners rather than BRI participation causing democratic decline. China strategically engages with countries that already possess lower democratic standards and higher corruption tolerance, likely for practical project implementation considerations rather than ideological preferences. These results challenge narratives about BRI-induced democratic erosion and suggest China's strategy operates primarily through economic rather than political mechanisms. While BRI participation does not actively worsen democratic institutions short-term, China's partner selection may normalise lower governance standards in international development cooperation. (Less)
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author
Svoboda, Andreas LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK12 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Belt and Road Initiative, China, democracy, autocratic linkage, differences-in-differences, governance, authoritarian diffusion, V-Dem, selection effects, international development
language
English
id
9189794
date added to LUP
2025-08-07 16:28:08
date last changed
2025-08-07 16:28:08
@misc{9189794,
  abstract     = {{This study examines the relationship between participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative and changes in democratic governance indicators among participating nations. Using differences-in-differences methodology, event study analysis, and propensity score matching on V-Dem data from 2000-2024, we analyse the impact of BRI participation on electoral democracy, participatory democracy, and political corruption levels. Simple comparisons reveal that BRI countries score 0.3-0.4 points lower on democracy scales and 0.45-0.48 points higher on corruption measures compared to non-BRI countries. However, when controlling for observable economic characteristics and employing fixed effects models, these associations become statistically insignificant. The findings indicate that observed correlations primarily reflect China's systematic selection of BRI partners rather than BRI participation causing democratic decline. China strategically engages with countries that already possess lower democratic standards and higher corruption tolerance, likely for practical project implementation considerations rather than ideological preferences. These results challenge narratives about BRI-induced democratic erosion and suggest China's strategy operates primarily through economic rather than political mechanisms. While BRI participation does not actively worsen democratic institutions short-term, China's partner selection may normalise lower governance standards in international development cooperation.}},
  author       = {{Svoboda, Andreas}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Nothing Ever Happens: A differences-in-differences analysis on the Belt and Road Initiative’s impact (or lack thereof) on democratic indicators of participant states}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}