Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas
(2003) In Water Science and Technology 48(9). p.165-175- Abstract
- Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global... (More)
- Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/289946
- author
- Semadeni Davies, Annette LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2003
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- sensitivity, mitigation, impacts, adaptation, climate scenarios, uncertainty, analysis, socio-economic scenarios
- in
- Water Science and Technology
- volume
- 48
- issue
- 9
- pages
- 165 - 175
- publisher
- IWA Publishing
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:14703150
- wos:000187915400017
- scopus:0346724687
- ISSN
- 0273-1223
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- ceb3c216-02f1-4dfd-b5bf-7bc5bfa5dd04 (old id 289946)
- alternative location
- http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/04809/wst048090165.htm
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 15:29:31
- date last changed
- 2022-01-28 05:38:06
@article{ceb3c216-02f1-4dfd-b5bf-7bc5bfa5dd04,
abstract = {{Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.}},
author = {{Semadeni Davies, Annette}},
issn = {{0273-1223}},
keywords = {{sensitivity; mitigation; impacts; adaptation; climate scenarios; uncertainty; analysis; socio-economic scenarios}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{9}},
pages = {{165--175}},
publisher = {{IWA Publishing}},
series = {{Water Science and Technology}},
title = {{Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas}},
url = {{http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/04809/wst048090165.htm}},
volume = {{48}},
year = {{2003}},
}