Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus
(2016) In SpringerPlus 5.- Abstract
AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.
METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.
RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up.... (More)
AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.
METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.
RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.
CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.
(Less)
- author
- Ignell, Claes LU ; Ekelund, Magnus LU ; Anderberg, Eva LU and Berntorp, Kerstin LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2016
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- SpringerPlus
- volume
- 5
- article number
- 318
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000373222000003
- scopus:84961170084
- pmid:27065426
- ISSN
- 2193-1801
- DOI
- 10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57fe
- date added to LUP
- 2016-05-04 08:59:31
- date last changed
- 2024-07-12 06:18:13
@article{468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57fe, abstract = {{<p>AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.</p><p>METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.</p><p>RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.</p><p>CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.</p>}}, author = {{Ignell, Claes and Ekelund, Magnus and Anderberg, Eva and Berntorp, Kerstin}}, issn = {{2193-1801}}, language = {{eng}}, publisher = {{Springer}}, series = {{SpringerPlus}}, title = {{Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7}}, doi = {{10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7}}, volume = {{5}}, year = {{2016}}, }