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Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis

Abrahamsson, Marcus LU (2000) In LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE
Abstract
The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the... (More)
The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues?



The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Book/Report
publication status
published
subject
in
LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE
pages
82 pages
publisher
[Publisher information missing]
report number
3116
ISSN
1402-3504
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2c3ae994-7109-4fad-aad2-3c8861a5466e (old id 525797)
date added to LUP
2016-04-04 09:41:35
date last changed
2018-11-21 20:54:57
@techreport{2c3ae994-7109-4fad-aad2-3c8861a5466e,
  abstract     = {{The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues? <br/><br>
<br/><br>
The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001.}},
  author       = {{Abrahamsson, Marcus}},
  institution  = {{[Publisher information missing]}},
  issn         = {{1402-3504}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3116}},
  series       = {{LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE}},
  title        = {{Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/5392136/1259307.pdf}},
  year         = {{2000}},
}