Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
Nemes, Szilard ; Rolfson, Ola ; W-Dahl, Annette LU ; Garellick, Goran ; Sundberg, Martin LU
; Karrholm, Johan
and Robertsson, Otto
LU
(2015)
In Acta Orthopaedica
86(4).
p.426-431
- Abstract
- Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee... (More)
- Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281-374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308-441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation - Today's levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/7978742
- author
- Nemes, Szilard
; Rolfson, Ola
; W-Dahl, Annette
LU
; Garellick, Goran
; Sundberg, Martin
LU
; Karrholm, Johan
and Robertsson, Otto
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2015
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Acta Orthopaedica
- volume
- 86
- issue
- 4
- pages
- 426 - 431
- publisher
- Taylor & Francis
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000359106700006
- scopus:84937878430
- pmid:25806653
- ISSN
- 1745-3682
- DOI
- 10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 77e1d214-9c35-4660-adeb-108633628fcf (old id 7978742)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 13:58:35
- date last changed
- 2022-03-06 08:50:56
@article{77e1d214-9c35-4660-adeb-108633628fcf,
abstract = {{Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281-374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308-441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation - Today's levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.}},
author = {{Nemes, Szilard and Rolfson, Ola and W-Dahl, Annette and Garellick, Goran and Sundberg, Martin and Karrholm, Johan and Robertsson, Otto}},
issn = {{1745-3682}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{4}},
pages = {{426--431}},
publisher = {{Taylor & Francis}},
series = {{Acta Orthopaedica}},
title = {{Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608}},
doi = {{10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608}},
volume = {{86}},
year = {{2015}},
}