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RoadRAT – A new framework to assess the probability of inundation, wave runup, and erosion impacting coastal roads

Hallin, Caroline LU ; Adell, Anna LU orcid ; Almström, Björn LU ; Kroon, Aart and Larson, Magnus LU (2025) In Coastal Engineering 199.
Abstract

This paper introduces a new framework – RoadRAT - to calculate the probability of inundation, wave runup, and storm erosion impacting coastal roads. Extreme value analysis is applied to annual maxima of observed and simulated still water level levels (SWL), total water levels (SWL + runup), and storm erosion volumes. The probability of impact on the road is derived both for the present conditions and for future conditions considering long-term evolution of the coastline in response to sea level rise and projected continuation of historical trends. RoadRAT is intended for screening at a regional scale (>100 km) to identify vulnerable road segments that need further attention. A case study was conducted on the south coast of Sweden to... (More)

This paper introduces a new framework – RoadRAT - to calculate the probability of inundation, wave runup, and storm erosion impacting coastal roads. Extreme value analysis is applied to annual maxima of observed and simulated still water level levels (SWL), total water levels (SWL + runup), and storm erosion volumes. The probability of impact on the road is derived both for the present conditions and for future conditions considering long-term evolution of the coastline in response to sea level rise and projected continuation of historical trends. RoadRAT is intended for screening at a regional scale (>100 km) to identify vulnerable road segments that need further attention. A case study was conducted on the south coast of Sweden to demonstrate the framework. The results indicate that the main coastal road has a low probability of impact under present conditions, but that it will increase in the future under changing climatic conditions. In 2150, which is the target year for the analysis, several kilometres of the road will be lost to erosion, and flooding and runup will frequently impact parts of the remaining road. In future applications, RoadRAT could be coupled with models that describe the consequences of inundation, wave runup, and storm erosion for road serviceability and transport.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Extreme value analysis, Inundation, Road infrastructure, Runup, Sea level rise, Storm erosion
in
Coastal Engineering
volume
199
article number
104741
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:86000532149
ISSN
0378-3839
DOI
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104741
project
Climate adaptation of near-coastal roads and railroads
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors
id
8622e87b-bd2b-454b-bb5c-fdc903e192b3
date added to LUP
2025-04-15 16:16:31
date last changed
2025-04-22 10:03:21
@article{8622e87b-bd2b-454b-bb5c-fdc903e192b3,
  abstract     = {{<p>This paper introduces a new framework – RoadRAT - to calculate the probability of inundation, wave runup, and storm erosion impacting coastal roads. Extreme value analysis is applied to annual maxima of observed and simulated still water level levels (SWL), total water levels (SWL + runup), and storm erosion volumes. The probability of impact on the road is derived both for the present conditions and for future conditions considering long-term evolution of the coastline in response to sea level rise and projected continuation of historical trends. RoadRAT is intended for screening at a regional scale (&gt;100 km) to identify vulnerable road segments that need further attention. A case study was conducted on the south coast of Sweden to demonstrate the framework. The results indicate that the main coastal road has a low probability of impact under present conditions, but that it will increase in the future under changing climatic conditions. In 2150, which is the target year for the analysis, several kilometres of the road will be lost to erosion, and flooding and runup will frequently impact parts of the remaining road. In future applications, RoadRAT could be coupled with models that describe the consequences of inundation, wave runup, and storm erosion for road serviceability and transport.</p>}},
  author       = {{Hallin, Caroline and Adell, Anna and Almström, Björn and Kroon, Aart and Larson, Magnus}},
  issn         = {{0378-3839}},
  keywords     = {{Extreme value analysis; Inundation; Road infrastructure; Runup; Sea level rise; Storm erosion}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{06}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Coastal Engineering}},
  title        = {{RoadRAT – A new framework to assess the probability of inundation, wave runup, and erosion impacting coastal roads}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104741}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104741}},
  volume       = {{199}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}