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All-cause mortality after ERCP

Kalaitzakis, Evangelos LU (2016) In Endoscopy 48(11). p.987-994
Abstract

Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP... (More)

Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Endoscopy
volume
48
issue
11
pages
987 - 994
publisher
Georg Thieme Verlag
external identifiers
  • pmid:27494454
  • wos:000393559400005
  • scopus:84981216989
ISSN
0013-726X
DOI
10.1055/s-0042-111319
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c
date added to LUP
2016-09-02 15:06:58
date last changed
2024-06-28 14:30:17
@article{dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c,
  abstract     = {{<p> Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?</p>}},
  author       = {{Kalaitzakis, Evangelos}},
  issn         = {{0013-726X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{06}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{987--994}},
  publisher    = {{Georg Thieme Verlag}},
  series       = {{Endoscopy}},
  title        = {{All-cause mortality after ERCP}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0042-111319}},
  doi          = {{10.1055/s-0042-111319}},
  volume       = {{48}},
  year         = {{2016}},
}