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Exploring the Duration of EU Imports

Hess, Wolfgang LU and Persson, Maria LU (2011) In Review of World Economics 147(4). p.665-692
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to perform an empirical description and analysis of the duration of EU imports from the rest of the world. Toward this aim, we employ a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. Using these data, we both perform a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU trade, and test the data in a regression analysis, using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. Some interesting empirical findings emerge in our analysis. First, we find that EU imports from the rest of the world are very short-lived. The median duration of EU imports is merely one year. Moreover, almost 60 percent of all spells... (More)
The objective of this paper is to perform an empirical description and analysis of the duration of EU imports from the rest of the world. Toward this aim, we employ a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. Using these data, we both perform a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU trade, and test the data in a regression analysis, using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. Some interesting empirical findings emerge in our analysis. First, we find that EU imports from the rest of the world are very short-lived. The median duration of EU imports is merely one year. Moreover, almost 60 percent of all spells cease during the first year of service, and less than ten percent survive the first ten years. Second, we find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study. Third, we find a set of statistically significant determinants of the duration of trade. Among the more interesting determinants is export diversification, which – both in terms of the number of products exported and the number of markets served with the

given product – substantially lowers the hazard of trade flows dying. For instance, exporting a particular product to ten rather than one EU markets increases the probability of surviving the first year of trade in any given trade relationship by as much as 31 percentage points (from 33% to 64%). (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Duration of Trade, Survival, European Union, Discrete-Time Hazard Models
in
Review of World Economics
volume
147
issue
4
pages
665 - 692
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • WOS:000295587300004
  • Scopus:80053560942
ISSN
1610-2878
DOI
10.1007/s10290-011-0106-x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e12eb82f-282f-4e1e-b8f3-52c35f6c2c6e (old id 1910262)
date added to LUP
2011-04-28 10:38:00
date last changed
2016-11-27 04:29:34
@misc{e12eb82f-282f-4e1e-b8f3-52c35f6c2c6e,
  abstract     = {The objective of this paper is to perform an empirical description and analysis of the duration of EU imports from the rest of the world. Toward this aim, we employ a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. Using these data, we both perform a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU trade, and test the data in a regression analysis, using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. Some interesting empirical findings emerge in our analysis. First, we find that EU imports from the rest of the world are very short-lived. The median duration of EU imports is merely one year. Moreover, almost 60 percent of all spells cease during the first year of service, and less than ten percent survive the first ten years. Second, we find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study. Third, we find a set of statistically significant determinants of the duration of trade. Among the more interesting determinants is export diversification, which – both in terms of the number of products exported and the number of markets served with the<br/><br>
given product – substantially lowers the hazard of trade flows dying. For instance, exporting a particular product to ten rather than one EU markets increases the probability of surviving the first year of trade in any given trade relationship by as much as 31 percentage points (from 33% to 64%).},
  author       = {Hess, Wolfgang and Persson, Maria},
  issn         = {1610-2878},
  keyword      = {Duration of Trade,Survival,European Union,Discrete-Time Hazard Models},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {665--692},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0xc333a28)},
  series       = {Review of World Economics},
  title        = {Exploring the Duration of EU Imports},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10290-011-0106-x},
  volume       = {147},
  year         = {2011},
}