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Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus

Ignell, Claes LU ; Ekelund, Magnus LU ; Anderberg, Eva LU and Berntorp, Kerstin LU (2016) In SpringerPlus 5.
Abstract

AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.

METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up.... (More)

AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.

METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.

CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
SpringerPlus
volume
5
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • WOS:000373222000003
  • Scopus:84961170084
ISSN
2193-1801
DOI
10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57fe
date added to LUP
2016-05-04 08:59:31
date last changed
2016-11-07 14:43:43
@misc{468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57fe,
  abstract     = {<p>AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.</p><p>METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.</p><p>RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P &lt; 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.</p><p>CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.</p>},
  author       = {Ignell, Claes and Ekelund, Magnus and Anderberg, Eva and Berntorp, Kerstin},
  issn         = {2193-1801},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0xbaaa878)},
  series       = {SpringerPlus},
  title        = {Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7},
  volume       = {5},
  year         = {2016},
}