Krig eller Fred: Kritiska punkter på maktcykeln och risken för krig mellan stormakter
(2011) STVM01 20112Department of Political Science
- Abstract
- For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war... (More)
- For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war is more likely to occur during a critical point than it is otherwise. With the future in mind, we should be aware of the increased risk of conflict as both USA and China are moving towards a critical point. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/2199059
- author
- Hurtig, Martin LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- STVM01 20112
- year
- 2011
- type
- H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
- subject
- keywords
- Power Cycle Theory, War, Major Powers, Measuring National Power
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 2199059
- date added to LUP
- 2011-12-07 09:48:12
- date last changed
- 2011-12-07 09:48:12
@misc{2199059, abstract = {{For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war is more likely to occur during a critical point than it is otherwise. With the future in mind, we should be aware of the increased risk of conflict as both USA and China are moving towards a critical point.}}, author = {{Hurtig, Martin}}, language = {{swe}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Krig eller Fred: Kritiska punkter på maktcykeln och risken för krig mellan stormakter}}, year = {{2011}}, }