Effects of climate change at the 2040’s horizon on the hydrology of the pluvio-nival rheraya watershed near marrakesh, morocco
Hajhouji, Youssef ; Fakir, Younes ; Simonneaux, Vincent ; Gascoin, Simon ; Bouras, El Houssaine LU
and Chehbouni, Abdelghani
(2020)
1st International Conference on Smart Information and Communication Technologies, SmartICT 2019
In Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
684 LNEE.
p.440-450
- Abstract
The present study aims at modeling and analyzing the climate change effects on the runoff of the Rheraya stream (Morocco), taking into account the snow component. For this purpose, we combined the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model with the CemaNeige snow module calibrated over 1989–2009, for daily time step simulations. Med-Cordex climate projections for the period 2020–2040 were used to simulate the future evolution of precipitations, snow cover area and runoff according to the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP); RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (trend scenario). The results showed a decrease in rainfall, snow cover area and runoff for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios at the 2040’s horizon when... (More)
The present study aims at modeling and analyzing the climate change effects on the runoff of the Rheraya stream (Morocco), taking into account the snow component. For this purpose, we combined the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model with the CemaNeige snow module calibrated over 1989–2009, for daily time step simulations. Med-Cordex climate projections for the period 2020–2040 were used to simulate the future evolution of precipitations, snow cover area and runoff according to the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP); RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (trend scenario). The results showed a decrease in rainfall, snow cover area and runoff for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios at the 2040’s horizon when compared to the 1989–2009 baseline. The annual rainfall decreases by −18.4% for the RCP 4.5 scenario and −19.6% for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The snow cover area decreases by −38% and −48% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Finally, the average annual runoff decreases by −9% for RCP 4.5 and −28% for RCP 8.5 scenarios. The forthcoming consequences would seriously affect irrigation and groundwater availability in the area.
(Less)
- author
- Hajhouji, Youssef
; Fakir, Younes
; Simonneaux, Vincent
; Gascoin, Simon
; Bouras, El Houssaine
LU
and Chehbouni, Abdelghani
- publishing date
- 2020
- type
- Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
- publication status
- published
- keywords
- CemaNeige, GR4J, Hydrologic modeling, RCP scenarios, Snow, Tensift-El Haouz watershed
- host publication
- Advances in Smart Technologies Applications and Case Studies - Selected Papers from the 1st International Conference on Smart Information and Communication Technologies, SmartICT 2019
- series title
- Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
- editor
- El Moussati, Ali ; Kpalma, Kidiyo ; Ghaouth Belkasmi, Mohammed ; Saber, Mohammed and Guégan, Sylvain
- volume
- 684 LNEE
- pages
- 11 pages
- publisher
- Springer Gabler
- conference name
- 1st International Conference on Smart Information and Communication Technologies, SmartICT 2019
- conference location
- Berkane, Morocco
- conference dates
- 2019-09-26 - 2019-09-28
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85089722318
- ISSN
- 1876-1119
- 1876-1100
- ISBN
- 9783030531867
- DOI
- 10.1007/978-3-030-53187-4_48
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
- id
- 0dc5a294-074b-45d2-a7a6-68fa481a1655
- date added to LUP
- 2023-01-04 09:51:26
- date last changed
- 2024-06-28 00:03:39
@inproceedings{0dc5a294-074b-45d2-a7a6-68fa481a1655,
abstract = {{<p>The present study aims at modeling and analyzing the climate change effects on the runoff of the Rheraya stream (Morocco), taking into account the snow component. For this purpose, we combined the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model with the CemaNeige snow module calibrated over 1989–2009, for daily time step simulations. Med-Cordex climate projections for the period 2020–2040 were used to simulate the future evolution of precipitations, snow cover area and runoff according to the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP); RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (trend scenario). The results showed a decrease in rainfall, snow cover area and runoff for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios at the 2040’s horizon when compared to the 1989–2009 baseline. The annual rainfall decreases by −18.4% for the RCP 4.5 scenario and −19.6% for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The snow cover area decreases by −38% and −48% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Finally, the average annual runoff decreases by −9% for RCP 4.5 and −28% for RCP 8.5 scenarios. The forthcoming consequences would seriously affect irrigation and groundwater availability in the area.</p>}},
author = {{Hajhouji, Youssef and Fakir, Younes and Simonneaux, Vincent and Gascoin, Simon and Bouras, El Houssaine and Chehbouni, Abdelghani}},
booktitle = {{Advances in Smart Technologies Applications and Case Studies - Selected Papers from the 1st International Conference on Smart Information and Communication Technologies, SmartICT 2019}},
editor = {{El Moussati, Ali and Kpalma, Kidiyo and Ghaouth Belkasmi, Mohammed and Saber, Mohammed and Guégan, Sylvain}},
isbn = {{9783030531867}},
issn = {{1876-1119}},
keywords = {{CemaNeige; GR4J; Hydrologic modeling; RCP scenarios; Snow; Tensift-El Haouz watershed}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{440--450}},
publisher = {{Springer Gabler}},
series = {{Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering}},
title = {{Effects of climate change at the 2040’s horizon on the hydrology of the pluvio-nival rheraya watershed near marrakesh, morocco}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53187-4_48}},
doi = {{10.1007/978-3-030-53187-4_48}},
volume = {{684 LNEE}},
year = {{2020}},
}