Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data
(2011) In Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science 369(1943). p.1955-1966- Abstract
We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO2 flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/18354c73-e92f-40b8-a4a5-957ef7c1b563
- author
- Rayner, P. J. ; Koffi, E. ; Scholze, M. LU ; Kaminski, T. and Dufresne, J. L.
- publishing date
- 2011-05-28
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Carbon cycle, Data assimilation, Terrestrial uptake
- in
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science
- volume
- 369
- issue
- 1943
- pages
- 12 pages
- publisher
- Royal Society Publishing
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:21502169
- scopus:79957603037
- ISSN
- 1364-503X
- DOI
- 10.1098/rsta.2010.0378
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- 18354c73-e92f-40b8-a4a5-957ef7c1b563
- date added to LUP
- 2019-03-14 21:18:16
- date last changed
- 2024-10-02 19:10:04
@article{18354c73-e92f-40b8-a4a5-957ef7c1b563, abstract = {{<p>We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO<sub>2</sub> flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.</p>}}, author = {{Rayner, P. J. and Koffi, E. and Scholze, M. and Kaminski, T. and Dufresne, J. L.}}, issn = {{1364-503X}}, keywords = {{Carbon cycle; Data assimilation; Terrestrial uptake}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{05}}, number = {{1943}}, pages = {{1955--1966}}, publisher = {{Royal Society Publishing}}, series = {{Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science}}, title = {{Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0378}}, doi = {{10.1098/rsta.2010.0378}}, volume = {{369}}, year = {{2011}}, }