Potential för ökad tillförsel av inhemsk biomassa i en växande svensk bioekonomi – en uppdatering
(2021)- Abstract
- This study include an updated analysis of the potential increase in the supply of biomass from forest, agriculture and aquaculture in Sweden until 2030 and 2050, respectively. The study is based on a previous assessment from 2016 but where the potential of different categories of biomass feedstocks is revised according to new knowledge and changed conditions during the last five years. The estimated potentials include technical, economic and ecological restrictions. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2030 is estimated to, on average, 50 TWh/yr (41-59 TWh/yr), which is equivalent to the previous assessment from 2016. However, there are changes regarding the supply from different biomass categories where, for example, the... (More)
- This study include an updated analysis of the potential increase in the supply of biomass from forest, agriculture and aquaculture in Sweden until 2030 and 2050, respectively. The study is based on a previous assessment from 2016 but where the potential of different categories of biomass feedstocks is revised according to new knowledge and changed conditions during the last five years. The estimated potentials include technical, economic and ecological restrictions. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2030 is estimated to, on average, 50 TWh/yr (41-59 TWh/yr), which is equivalent to the previous assessment from 2016. However, there are changes regarding the supply from different biomass categories where, for example, the potential in form of stumps has been excluded but where the potential in form of by-products from the forest industry has increased. Regarding agriculture-based biomass feedstocks, the potential of brushwood harvesting has been added whereas the potential in form of energy crops on cropland has been reduced. Forest-based biomass account for two thirds of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for one third. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2050 is estimated to, on average, 67 TWh/yr (56-79 TWh/yr), which is almost 20% lower than the previous assessment from 2016. The main reason for this is a reduced potential in form of energy crops on cropland. In this case, forest-based biomass account for 60% of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for 40%. The potential of aquatic-based biomass is estimated to be rather small, around 1 TWh/yr 2050, which is similar to the previous assessment. How large share of the estimated biomass potentials that will be realized depends mainly on the development of EU and national political incentives within energy, climate and agriculture policies during the coming years. (Less)
- Abstract (Swedish)
- I denna studie genomförs en uppdaterad analys av potentialen för en ökad tillförsel av biomassa från skog, jordbruk och akvatiska system i Sverige till 2030 respektive 2050. Studien tar sin utgångspunkt i en tidigare potentialstudie från 2016 men där potentialen för respektive biomassakategori justerats efter de omvärldsförändringar som skett och ny kunskap som tagits fram under de senaste fem åren. Potentialuppskattningarna beaktar aktuella tekniska, ekonomiska och ekologiska begränsningar så långt det är möjligt. Den totala ökade tillförselpotentialen till 2030 bedöms uppgå till i genomsnitt cirka 50 TWh/år, med ett intervall om 41-59 TWh/år, vilket ligger i nivå med den tidigare uppskattningen från 2016. Dock har förändringar skett när... (More)
- I denna studie genomförs en uppdaterad analys av potentialen för en ökad tillförsel av biomassa från skog, jordbruk och akvatiska system i Sverige till 2030 respektive 2050. Studien tar sin utgångspunkt i en tidigare potentialstudie från 2016 men där potentialen för respektive biomassakategori justerats efter de omvärldsförändringar som skett och ny kunskap som tagits fram under de senaste fem åren. Potentialuppskattningarna beaktar aktuella tekniska, ekonomiska och ekologiska begränsningar så långt det är möjligt. Den totala ökade tillförselpotentialen till 2030 bedöms uppgå till i genomsnitt cirka 50 TWh/år, med ett intervall om 41-59 TWh/år, vilket ligger i nivå med den tidigare uppskattningen från 2016. Dock har förändringar skett när det gäller potentialen för olika biomassakategorier där t ex potentialen i form av stubbar har exkluderats medan potentialen i form av biprodukter inom skogsindustrin har ökat. För jordbruksbaserad biomassa har potentialen i form av slytäkt tillkommit medan potentialen i form av energigrödor från åkermark minskat. Skogsbaserad biomassa utgör cirka två tredjedelar medan jordbruksbaserad biomassa utgör cirka en tredjedel. Den ökade tillförselpotentialen av biomassa till 2050 uppskattas till i genomsnitt 67 TWh/år, med ett intervall om 56-79 TWh/år, vilket är knappt 20% lägre än den tidigare uppskattningen från 2016. Det främsta skälet till detta är en minskad uppskattad potential i form av energigrödor på åkermark. Andelen skogsbaserad biomassa utgör i detta fall cirka 60% medan jordbruksbaserad biomassa utgör cirka 40%. Potentialen för akvatisk biomassa bedöms vara liten, cirka 1 TWh/år till 2050, vilket är oförändrat jämfört med den tidigare studien. Hur stor del av de uppskattade ökade tillförselpotentialerna som kommer att realiseras beror till stor del på utvecklingen av såväl nationella som EU-styrmedel inom energi-, klimat- och jordbrukspolitiken under de närmaste åren. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/29600a2a-724e-4e06-b407-2f5681040fec
- author
- Börjesson, Pål LU
- organization
- alternative title
- The potential of an increased supply of domestic biomass in a growing Swedish bio-economy – an update
- publishing date
- 2021-04-09
- type
- Book/Report
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Biomassa, potential, skog, jordbruk, akvatiska system, Sverige, Biomass, potential, forest, agriculture, aquaculture, Sweden
- pages
- 19 pages
- publisher
- Lunds universitet. Avdelningen för miljö- och energisystem
- report number
- Report No 121
- ISBN
- 978-91-86961-47-3
- project
- Integrerad produktion av pyrolysolja i befintliga kraftvärmeverk - en systemstudie
- Systemperspektiv på svensk produktion av biojetbränslen
- Systeminriktad analys av processer för biodrivmedel från skogsråvara
- language
- Swedish
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 29600a2a-724e-4e06-b407-2f5681040fec
- date added to LUP
- 2021-04-09 14:22:00
- date last changed
- 2021-04-27 16:08:32
@techreport{29600a2a-724e-4e06-b407-2f5681040fec,
abstract = {{This study include an updated analysis of the potential increase in the supply of biomass from forest, agriculture and aquaculture in Sweden until 2030 and 2050, respectively. The study is based on a previous assessment from 2016 but where the potential of different categories of biomass feedstocks is revised according to new knowledge and changed conditions during the last five years. The estimated potentials include technical, economic and ecological restrictions. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2030 is estimated to, on average, 50 TWh/yr (41-59 TWh/yr), which is equivalent to the previous assessment from 2016. However, there are changes regarding the supply from different biomass categories where, for example, the potential in form of stumps has been excluded but where the potential in form of by-products from the forest industry has increased. Regarding agriculture-based biomass feedstocks, the potential of brushwood harvesting has been added whereas the potential in form of energy crops on cropland has been reduced. Forest-based biomass account for two thirds of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for one third. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2050 is estimated to, on average, 67 TWh/yr (56-79 TWh/yr), which is almost 20% lower than the previous assessment from 2016. The main reason for this is a reduced potential in form of energy crops on cropland. In this case, forest-based biomass account for 60% of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for 40%. The potential of aquatic-based biomass is estimated to be rather small, around 1 TWh/yr 2050, which is similar to the previous assessment. How large share of the estimated biomass potentials that will be realized depends mainly on the development of EU and national political incentives within energy, climate and agriculture policies during the coming years.}},
author = {{Börjesson, Pål}},
institution = {{Lunds universitet. Avdelningen för miljö- och energisystem}},
isbn = {{978-91-86961-47-3}},
keywords = {{Biomassa, potential, skog, jordbruk, akvatiska system, Sverige; Biomass, potential, forest, agriculture, aquaculture, Sweden}},
language = {{swe}},
month = {{04}},
number = {{Report No 121}},
title = {{Potential för ökad tillförsel av inhemsk biomassa i en växande svensk bioekonomi – en uppdatering}},
url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/96470174/B_rjesson_P._2021._Rapport_nr_121_Milj_och_energisystem_Lunds_universitet.pdf}},
year = {{2021}},
}