Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River
(2018) In Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 32(1). p.223-240- Abstract
Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions... (More)
Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.
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- author
- Mohammed, R. ; Scholz, M. LU ; Nanekely, M. A. and Mokhtari, Y.
- organization
- publishing date
- 2018-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Climate change, Human-induced impacts, Hydrologic sensitivity analysis, Multi-model combination technique, Multi-regression, Runoff simulation
- in
- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
- volume
- 32
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 223 - 240
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85007490497
- ISSN
- 1436-3240
- DOI
- 10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 30d9d234-14b6-413d-ae02-c01b58a5f048
- date added to LUP
- 2017-01-13 07:28:55
- date last changed
- 2022-04-24 20:50:54
@article{30d9d234-14b6-413d-ae02-c01b58a5f048, abstract = {{<p>Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.</p>}}, author = {{Mohammed, R. and Scholz, M. and Nanekely, M. A. and Mokhtari, Y.}}, issn = {{1436-3240}}, keywords = {{Climate change; Human-induced impacts; Hydrologic sensitivity analysis; Multi-model combination technique; Multi-regression; Runoff simulation}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{1}}, pages = {{223--240}}, publisher = {{Springer}}, series = {{Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}}, title = {{Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7}}, doi = {{10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7}}, volume = {{32}}, year = {{2018}}, }