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African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century

Fisher, Joshua B. ; Sikka, Munish ; Sitch, Stephen ; Ciais, Philippe ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Galbraith, David ; Lee, Jung-Eun ; Huntingford, Chris ; Viovy, Nicolas and Zeng, Ning , et al. (2013) In Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368(1625). p.9-20120376
Abstract
The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO2 fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1 or −0.04 Pg C yr−1, p < 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO2 flux at the beginning of the century (σ1901 = 0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1),... (More)
The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO2 fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1 or −0.04 Pg C yr−1, p < 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO2 flux at the beginning of the century (σ1901 = 0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1), but diverged exponentially throughout the century (σ2010 = 0.03 kg C m−2 yr−1). The increasing uncertainty is due to differences in sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2, but not increasing water stress, despite a decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature. However, the largest uncertainties were associated with the most extreme drought events of the century. These results highlight the need to constrain modelled CO2 fluxes with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and extreme climatic events, as the uncertainties will only amplify in the next century. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
volume
368
issue
1625
pages
9 - 20120376
publisher
Royal Society Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000331220500015
  • scopus:84880618844
ISSN
1471-2970
DOI
10.1098/rstb.2012.0376
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
850bdc07-4f23-4ea3-ae1e-d133ccce0a67 (old id 3954567)
alternative location
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/368/1625/20120376.abstract
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 10:17:12
date last changed
2022-03-12 04:22:08
@article{850bdc07-4f23-4ea3-ae1e-d133ccce0a67,
  abstract     = {{The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO2 fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1 or −0.04 Pg C yr−1, p &lt; 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO2 flux at the beginning of the century (σ1901 = 0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1), but diverged exponentially throughout the century (σ2010 = 0.03 kg C m−2 yr−1). The increasing uncertainty is due to differences in sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2, but not increasing water stress, despite a decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature. However, the largest uncertainties were associated with the most extreme drought events of the century. These results highlight the need to constrain modelled CO2 fluxes with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and extreme climatic events, as the uncertainties will only amplify in the next century.}},
  author       = {{Fisher, Joshua B. and Sikka, Munish and Sitch, Stephen and Ciais, Philippe and Poulter, Benjamin and Galbraith, David and Lee, Jung-Eun and Huntingford, Chris and Viovy, Nicolas and Zeng, Ning and Ahlström, Anders and Lomas, Mark R. and Levy, Peter E. and Frankenberg, Christian and Saatchi, Sassan and Malhi, Yadvinder}},
  issn         = {{1471-2970}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1625}},
  pages        = {{9--20120376}},
  publisher    = {{Royal Society Publishing}},
  series       = {{Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}},
  title        = {{African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0376}},
  doi          = {{10.1098/rstb.2012.0376}},
  volume       = {{368}},
  year         = {{2013}},
}