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Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Karan, Kunal ; Singh, Dharmaveer ; Singh, Pushpendra K. ; Bharati, Birendra ; Singh, Tarun P. and Berndtsson, Ronny LU orcid (2022) In Journal of Arid Land 14(11). p.1234-1257
Abstract

Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions. Lack of understanding of crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide. Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to account for the impacts of climate change on crops. Smaller basins, however, are more susceptible to regional climate change, with more significant impacts on crops.... (More)

Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions. Lack of understanding of crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide. Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to account for the impacts of climate change on crops. Smaller basins, however, are more susceptible to regional climate change, with more significant impacts on crops. This study estimates CWRs and IWRs for five crops (sugarcane, wheat, cotton, sorghum, and soybean) in the Pravara River Basin (area of 6537 km2) of India using outputs from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios. An increase in mean annual rainfall is projected under both scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s using ten selected CMIP6 GCMs. CWRs for all crops may decline in almost all of the CMIP6 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s (with the exceptions of ACCESS-CM-2 and ACCESS-ESM-1.5) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The availability of increasing soil moisture in the root zone due to increasing rainfall and a decrease in the projected maximum temperature may be responsible for this decline in CWR. Similarly, except for soybean and cotton, the projected IWRs for all other three crops under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a decrease or a small increase in the 2050s and 2080s in most CMIP6 GCMs. These findings are important for agricultural researchers and water resource managers to implement long-term crop planning techniques and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and associated rainfall variability to avert crop failure and agricultural losses.

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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate change, CMIP6 GCMs, crop water requirement, emission scenario, irrigation water requirement, Pravara River Basin
in
Journal of Arid Land
volume
14
issue
11
pages
24 pages
publisher
Science Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85139457182
ISSN
1674-6767
DOI
10.1007/s40333-022-0081-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3c7f5eb9-0b5a-4da0-bc09-01e36e9af5a8
date added to LUP
2022-12-14 11:00:36
date last changed
2023-10-05 08:56:48
@article{3c7f5eb9-0b5a-4da0-bc09-01e36e9af5a8,
  abstract     = {{<p>Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions. Lack of understanding of crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide. Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to account for the impacts of climate change on crops. Smaller basins, however, are more susceptible to regional climate change, with more significant impacts on crops. This study estimates CWRs and IWRs for five crops (sugarcane, wheat, cotton, sorghum, and soybean) in the Pravara River Basin (area of 6537 km<sup>2</sup>) of India using outputs from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios. An increase in mean annual rainfall is projected under both scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s using ten selected CMIP6 GCMs. CWRs for all crops may decline in almost all of the CMIP6 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s (with the exceptions of ACCESS-CM-2 and ACCESS-ESM-1.5) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The availability of increasing soil moisture in the root zone due to increasing rainfall and a decrease in the projected maximum temperature may be responsible for this decline in CWR. Similarly, except for soybean and cotton, the projected IWRs for all other three crops under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a decrease or a small increase in the 2050s and 2080s in most CMIP6 GCMs. These findings are important for agricultural researchers and water resource managers to implement long-term crop planning techniques and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and associated rainfall variability to avert crop failure and agricultural losses.</p>}},
  author       = {{Karan, Kunal and Singh, Dharmaveer and Singh, Pushpendra K. and Bharati, Birendra and Singh, Tarun P. and Berndtsson, Ronny}},
  issn         = {{1674-6767}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; CMIP6 GCMs; crop water requirement; emission scenario; irrigation water requirement; Pravara River Basin}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{1234--1257}},
  publisher    = {{Science Press}},
  series       = {{Journal of Arid Land}},
  title        = {{Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40333-022-0081-1}},
  doi          = {{10.1007/s40333-022-0081-1}},
  volume       = {{14}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}