Rethinking S-curves for policy-driven energy technologies
Jakhmola, Avi ; Jewell, Jessica ; Vinichenko, Vadim LU and Cherp, Aleh LU
(2026)
In Joule
- Abstract
Debates about the future of wind and solar power are often framed around a false binary: either these technologies will continue accelerating or they are already losing momentum. Both views assume that renewables follow an S-curve with near-exponential expansion followed by slowdown. Using national deployment data, we show that renewables’ growth departs from ideal S-curves. Instead, it proceeds through a formative phase of erratic growth, followed by takeoff and brief acceleration that ends at low levels of market penetration (≈3% of electricity generation). Renewables then enter a prolonged steady growth phase punctuated by pulses of acceleration and deceleration, with an overall cruising speed that is slower than the first growth... (More)
Debates about the future of wind and solar power are often framed around a false binary: either these technologies will continue accelerating or they are already losing momentum. Both views assume that renewables follow an S-curve with near-exponential expansion followed by slowdown. Using national deployment data, we show that renewables’ growth departs from ideal S-curves. Instead, it proceeds through a formative phase of erratic growth, followed by takeoff and brief acceleration that ends at low levels of market penetration (≈3% of electricity generation). Renewables then enter a prolonged steady growth phase punctuated by pulses of acceleration and deceleration, with an overall cruising speed that is slower than the first growth peak (≈0.7 percentage points [p.p.] year−1; interquartile range [IQR]: 0.4–1.5 for wind and 0.3–1.9 for solar). We develop diagnostic tools and metrics for these phases. Hindcasting shows that these outperform year-on-year trends and fitted S-curve parameters. Peak growth in front-runner countries provides a reliable upper bound for global expansion.
(Less)
- author
- Jakhmola, Avi
; Jewell, Jessica
; Vinichenko, Vadim
LU
and Cherp, Aleh
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- epub
- subject
- keywords
- backtesting, climate change mitigation, energy transitions, growth models, renewable energy, S-curves, solar PV, technology diffusion, time series forecasting, wind energy
- in
- Joule
- article number
- 102526
- publisher
- Cell Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105042603860
- ISSN
- 2542-4351
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.joule.2026.102526
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 4d295d7a-036b-40e0-b69a-cf97aef56578
- date added to LUP
- 2026-07-02 11:18:10
- date last changed
- 2026-07-02 11:18:36
@article{4d295d7a-036b-40e0-b69a-cf97aef56578,
abstract = {{<p>Debates about the future of wind and solar power are often framed around a false binary: either these technologies will continue accelerating or they are already losing momentum. Both views assume that renewables follow an S-curve with near-exponential expansion followed by slowdown. Using national deployment data, we show that renewables’ growth departs from ideal S-curves. Instead, it proceeds through a formative phase of erratic growth, followed by takeoff and brief acceleration that ends at low levels of market penetration (≈3% of electricity generation). Renewables then enter a prolonged steady growth phase punctuated by pulses of acceleration and deceleration, with an overall cruising speed that is slower than the first growth peak (≈0.7 percentage points [p.p.] year<sup>−1</sup>; interquartile range [IQR]: 0.4–1.5 for wind and 0.3–1.9 for solar). We develop diagnostic tools and metrics for these phases. Hindcasting shows that these outperform year-on-year trends and fitted S-curve parameters. Peak growth in front-runner countries provides a reliable upper bound for global expansion.</p>}},
author = {{Jakhmola, Avi and Jewell, Jessica and Vinichenko, Vadim and Cherp, Aleh}},
issn = {{2542-4351}},
keywords = {{backtesting; climate change mitigation; energy transitions; growth models; renewable energy; S-curves; solar PV; technology diffusion; time series forecasting; wind energy}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Cell Press}},
series = {{Joule}},
title = {{Rethinking S-curves for policy-driven energy technologies}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2026.102526}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.joule.2026.102526}},
year = {{2026}},
}