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Antagonistens roll : Vad Napoleon och KGB kan lära oss om beslutsfattandets konst inom militär ledning och underrättelseanalys

Ingesson, Tony LU orcid (2020) In Statsvetenskaplig tidskrift 122(4). p.655-668
Abstract
Professionalization is a growing trend in both military and intelligence organizations. However, unlike the traditional professions, both military decision-makers and intelligence analysts frequently find themselves locked in a struggle with an intelligent antagonist. One key aspect of professionalization, the teaching of structured, scientifically based knowledge and best practices, can lead to predictability. This creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by an antagonist. Using theories formulated by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, together with examples from Napoleon’s campaign in Northern Italy and the KGB’s deception operation to conceal a mole in the CIA, it is shown how personal qualities, creativity and unpredictability rather than... (More)
Professionalization is a growing trend in both military and intelligence organizations. However, unlike the traditional professions, both military decision-makers and intelligence analysts frequently find themselves locked in a struggle with an intelligent antagonist. One key aspect of professionalization, the teaching of structured, scientifically based knowledge and best practices, can lead to predictability. This creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by an antagonist. Using theories formulated by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, together with examples from Napoleon’s campaign in Northern Italy and the KGB’s deception operation to conceal a mole in the CIA, it is shown how personal qualities, creativity and unpredictability rather than conformity are required to prevail against an intelligent, well-informed and capable antagonist. Thus, both the military decision-maker and the intelligence analyst have more in common with the chess player than the traditional professional. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
beslutsfattande, KGB, Napoleon, professioner, underrättelseanalys, militärt beslutsfattande, militär profession
in
Statsvetenskaplig tidskrift
volume
122
issue
4
pages
655 - 668
publisher
Fahlbeckska stiftelsen
ISSN
0039-0747
language
Swedish
LU publication?
yes
id
5320c62e-3316-4f40-8615-b1c10e1e7291
alternative location
https://journals.lub.lu.se/st/article/view/22360/19941
date added to LUP
2020-05-28 15:00:15
date last changed
2021-01-08 02:32:29
@article{5320c62e-3316-4f40-8615-b1c10e1e7291,
  abstract     = {{Professionalization is a growing trend in both military and intelligence organizations. However, unlike the traditional professions, both military decision-makers and intelligence analysts frequently find themselves locked in a struggle with an intelligent antagonist. One key aspect of professionalization, the teaching of structured, scientifically based knowledge and best practices, can lead to predictability. This creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by an antagonist. Using theories formulated by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, together with examples from Napoleon’s campaign in Northern Italy and the KGB’s deception operation to conceal a mole in the CIA, it is shown how personal qualities, creativity and unpredictability rather than conformity are required to prevail against an intelligent, well-informed and capable antagonist. Thus, both the military decision-maker and the intelligence analyst have more in common with the chess player than the traditional professional.}},
  author       = {{Ingesson, Tony}},
  issn         = {{0039-0747}},
  keywords     = {{beslutsfattande; KGB; Napoleon; professioner; underrättelseanalys; militärt beslutsfattande; militär profession}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  month        = {{12}},
  number       = {{4}},
  pages        = {{655--668}},
  publisher    = {{Fahlbeckska stiftelsen}},
  series       = {{Statsvetenskaplig tidskrift}},
  title        = {{Antagonistens roll : Vad Napoleon och KGB kan lära oss om beslutsfattandets konst inom militär ledning och underrättelseanalys}},
  url          = {{https://journals.lub.lu.se/st/article/view/22360/19941}},
  volume       = {{122}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}