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Warming overwhelms CO2-driven drought mitigation in alpine vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Lyu, He ; Zhang, Xueqian ; Su, Jian ; Wårlind, David LU orcid ; Knauer, Jürgen ; Teckentrup, Lina LU ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Xu, Xiyan ; Chen, Chen and Zhu, Juntao , et al. (2026) In Communications Earth and Environment 7(1).
Abstract

Droughts have intensified under climate change, threatening ecosystem stability. While rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations may enhance vegetation drought resistance, the net effect remains uncertain amid concurrent warming. Here we combine ecological modeling with multi-source observations to investigate how CO2 and warming jointly regulate vegetation drought responses on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a sensitive alpine region exposed to escalating drought threats under changing precipitation regimes. Using factorial scenarios to isolate individual forcings, we show that 40-year CO2 rise mitigated drought-induced productivity losses by 5.7 ± 0.9% under constant temperature. However, in the presence of... (More)

Droughts have intensified under climate change, threatening ecosystem stability. While rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations may enhance vegetation drought resistance, the net effect remains uncertain amid concurrent warming. Here we combine ecological modeling with multi-source observations to investigate how CO2 and warming jointly regulate vegetation drought responses on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a sensitive alpine region exposed to escalating drought threats under changing precipitation regimes. Using factorial scenarios to isolate individual forcings, we show that 40-year CO2 rise mitigated drought-induced productivity losses by 5.7 ± 0.9% under constant temperature. However, in the presence of warming, rising CO2 intensifies drought stress by 5.2 ± 0.5%, reflecting increased plant water demand and disrupted regional water supply-demand balance. Permafrost areas experienced the strongest CO2-driven drought alleviation under constant temperature, but also the greatest warming-induced reversal. These findings reveal interacting CO2-warming impacts on alpine vegetation drought responses, highlighting ecological risks for the plateau and other permafrost-dominant regions under future warming.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Communications Earth and Environment
volume
7
issue
1
article number
293
publisher
Springer Nature
external identifiers
  • scopus:105035315161
ISSN
2662-4435
DOI
10.1038/s43247-026-03308-2
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2026.
id
54d5871b-7b8a-4129-9f52-351238ede2bc
date added to LUP
2026-05-27 13:26:54
date last changed
2026-05-28 11:21:02
@article{54d5871b-7b8a-4129-9f52-351238ede2bc,
  abstract     = {{<p>Droughts have intensified under climate change, threatening ecosystem stability. While rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations may enhance vegetation drought resistance, the net effect remains uncertain amid concurrent warming. Here we combine ecological modeling with multi-source observations to investigate how CO<sub>2</sub> and warming jointly regulate vegetation drought responses on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a sensitive alpine region exposed to escalating drought threats under changing precipitation regimes. Using factorial scenarios to isolate individual forcings, we show that 40-year CO<sub>2</sub> rise mitigated drought-induced productivity losses by 5.7 ± 0.9% under constant temperature. However, in the presence of warming, rising CO<sub>2</sub> intensifies drought stress by 5.2 ± 0.5%, reflecting increased plant water demand and disrupted regional water supply-demand balance. Permafrost areas experienced the strongest CO<sub>2</sub>-driven drought alleviation under constant temperature, but also the greatest warming-induced reversal. These findings reveal interacting CO<sub>2</sub>-warming impacts on alpine vegetation drought responses, highlighting ecological risks for the plateau and other permafrost-dominant regions under future warming.</p>}},
  author       = {{Lyu, He and Zhang, Xueqian and Su, Jian and Wårlind, David and Knauer, Jürgen and Teckentrup, Lina and Chang, Jinfeng and Xu, Xiyan and Chen, Chen and Zhu, Juntao and Ni, Jian and Sitch, Stephen and Fu, Yongshuo and Medlyn, Belinda and Smith, Benjamin and Yang, Yuanhe and Jiang, Mingkai}},
  issn         = {{2662-4435}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Nature}},
  series       = {{Communications Earth and Environment}},
  title        = {{Warming overwhelms CO<sub>2</sub>-driven drought mitigation in alpine vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03308-2}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s43247-026-03308-2}},
  volume       = {{7}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}