Multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating engineering systems
(2024) In Structural Safety 111.- Abstract
Probabilistic life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, or casualties over an asset's service life) can enable optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. This can lead to effective risk-informed decision-making for future disaster management (i.e., risk mitigation and/or resilience-enhancing strategies/policies) implementation. Nevertheless, despite recent advances in understanding, modeling, and quantifying multiple-hazard (or multi-hazard) interactions, most available LCCon analytical formulations fail to accurately compute the exacerbated consequences which may stem from incomplete or absent repair actions between different interacting hazard events. This paper... (More)
Probabilistic life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, or casualties over an asset's service life) can enable optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. This can lead to effective risk-informed decision-making for future disaster management (i.e., risk mitigation and/or resilience-enhancing strategies/policies) implementation. Nevertheless, despite recent advances in understanding, modeling, and quantifying multiple-hazard (or multi-hazard) interactions, most available LCCon analytical formulations fail to accurately compute the exacerbated consequences which may stem from incomplete or absent repair actions between different interacting hazard events. This paper introduces a discrete-time, discrete-state Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating engineering systems (e.g., buildings, infrastructure components) that appropriately accounts for complex interactions between natural hazard events and their effects on a system's performance. The Markovian assumption is used to model the probability of a system being in any performance level (i.e., limit state) after multiple hazard events inducing either instantaneous and/or gradual deterioration and after potential repair actions through implementing stochastic (transition) matrices. LCCon estimates are then obtained by combining limit state probabilties with suitable system-level consequence models in a computationally efficient manner. The proposed framework is illustrated for two case studies subject to earthquake and flood events as well as environment-induced corrosion during their service life. The first is a reinforced concrete building and the second is a simple transportation road network with a reinforced concrete bridge.
(Less)
- author
- Otárola, Kenneth ; Iannacone, Leandro LU ; Gentile, Roberto and Galasso, Carmine
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024-11
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Damage accumulation, Fragility relationship, Life-cycle consequence, Markov process, Multi-hazard modeling
- in
- Structural Safety
- volume
- 111
- article number
- 102515
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85193218994
- ISSN
- 0167-4730
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102515
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 67bf1ce2-5e1e-4b83-a242-700b8e40ad12
- date added to LUP
- 2025-01-08 11:00:00
- date last changed
- 2025-04-04 14:12:57
@article{67bf1ce2-5e1e-4b83-a242-700b8e40ad12,
abstract = {{<p>Probabilistic life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, or casualties over an asset's service life) can enable optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. This can lead to effective risk-informed decision-making for future disaster management (i.e., risk mitigation and/or resilience-enhancing strategies/policies) implementation. Nevertheless, despite recent advances in understanding, modeling, and quantifying multiple-hazard (or multi-hazard) interactions, most available LCCon analytical formulations fail to accurately compute the exacerbated consequences which may stem from incomplete or absent repair actions between different interacting hazard events. This paper introduces a discrete-time, discrete-state Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating engineering systems (e.g., buildings, infrastructure components) that appropriately accounts for complex interactions between natural hazard events and their effects on a system's performance. The Markovian assumption is used to model the probability of a system being in any performance level (i.e., limit state) after multiple hazard events inducing either instantaneous and/or gradual deterioration and after potential repair actions through implementing stochastic (transition) matrices. LCCon estimates are then obtained by combining limit state probabilties with suitable system-level consequence models in a computationally efficient manner. The proposed framework is illustrated for two case studies subject to earthquake and flood events as well as environment-induced corrosion during their service life. The first is a reinforced concrete building and the second is a simple transportation road network with a reinforced concrete bridge.</p>}},
author = {{Otárola, Kenneth and Iannacone, Leandro and Gentile, Roberto and Galasso, Carmine}},
issn = {{0167-4730}},
keywords = {{Damage accumulation; Fragility relationship; Life-cycle consequence; Markov process; Multi-hazard modeling}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Structural Safety}},
title = {{Multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating engineering systems}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102515}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102515}},
volume = {{111}},
year = {{2024}},
}