Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution

Tsuboi, Masahito LU ; Sztepanacz, Jacqueline ; De Lisle, Stephen LU ; Voje, Kjetil L ; Grabowski, Mark ; Hopkins, Melanie J ; Porto, Arthur ; Balk, Meghan ; Pontarp, Mikael LU and Rossoni, Daniela , et al. (2024) In Journal of evolutionary biology 37(12). p.1413-1432
Abstract
The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects... (More)
The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this “paradox of predictability.” We begin by explaining why the divergence–variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding of how evolution works within and across timescales. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and , et al. (More)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and (Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of evolutionary biology
volume
37
issue
12
pages
20 pages
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • pmid:39208440
  • scopus:85211352240
ISSN
1420-9101
DOI
10.1093/jeb/voae103
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
74a58d03-734d-4505-8fc6-859bcd5fec91
date added to LUP
2024-10-10 19:34:26
date last changed
2025-04-04 14:52:34
@article{74a58d03-734d-4505-8fc6-859bcd5fec91,
  abstract     = {{The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this “paradox of predictability.” We begin by explaining why the divergence–variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding of how evolution works within and across timescales.}},
  author       = {{Tsuboi, Masahito and Sztepanacz, Jacqueline and De Lisle, Stephen and Voje, Kjetil L and Grabowski, Mark and Hopkins, Melanie J and Porto, Arthur and Balk, Meghan and Pontarp, Mikael and Rossoni, Daniela and Hildesheim, Laura S and Horta-Lacueva, Quentin J-B and Hohmann, Niklas and Holstad, Agnes and Lürig, Moritz and Milocco, Lisandro and Nilén, Sofie and Passarotto, Arianna and Svensson, Erik I and Villegas, Cristina and Winslott, Erica and Liow, Lee Hsiang and Hunt, Gene and Love, Alan C and Houle, David}},
  issn         = {{1420-9101}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{12}},
  pages        = {{1413--1432}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Journal of evolutionary biology}},
  title        = {{The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeb/voae103}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/jeb/voae103}},
  volume       = {{37}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}