Interdecadal variation of drought patterns and associated influencing factors in the north-south transitional zone of China
(2024) In Journal of Geographical Sciences 34(7). p.1253-1279- Abstract
In the context of global warming, escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity. Yet, multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood. This study examined the multide-cadal changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) and their geographical focal points within China’s north-south transitional zone, the Qinling-Daba Mountains (QDM), from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In addition, a suite of eight scenarios, correlation analysis, and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics. The results... (More)
In the context of global warming, escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity. Yet, multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood. This study examined the multide-cadal changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) and their geographical focal points within China’s north-south transitional zone, the Qinling-Daba Mountains (QDM), from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In addition, a suite of eight scenarios, correlation analysis, and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1960 to 2017, the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency, duration, and severity, the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s, but drought intensified thereafter. Specifically, the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity, while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events. (2) Spatially, the Qinling Mountains, particularly the western Qinling Mountain, exhibited higher drought frequency, duration, and severity than the Daba Mountains. This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain. (3) Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation. Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions, thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes, with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming. The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes, with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation, and vice versa for increased precipitation.
(Less)
- author
- Dong, Qingdong ; Zhu, Lianqi ; Duan, Zheng LU ; Wang, Liyuan ; Chen, Chaonan ; Li, Yanhong ; Zhu, Wenbo and Gurung, Sher Bahadur
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- drought, multidecadal shift, Qinling-Daba Mountains, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, transitional zone
- in
- Journal of Geographical Sciences
- volume
- 34
- issue
- 7
- pages
- 27 pages
- publisher
- Science China Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85198621172
- ISSN
- 1009-637X
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11442-024-2247-6
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 96029f9a-c7e9-4bf7-9b62-2cb2ef89827d
- date added to LUP
- 2024-10-02 14:45:36
- date last changed
- 2024-10-02 14:46:02
@article{96029f9a-c7e9-4bf7-9b62-2cb2ef89827d,
abstract = {{<p>In the context of global warming, escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity. Yet, multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood. This study examined the multide-cadal changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) and their geographical focal points within China’s north-south transitional zone, the Qinling-Daba Mountains (QDM), from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In addition, a suite of eight scenarios, correlation analysis, and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1960 to 2017, the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency, duration, and severity, the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s, but drought intensified thereafter. Specifically, the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity, while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events. (2) Spatially, the Qinling Mountains, particularly the western Qinling Mountain, exhibited higher drought frequency, duration, and severity than the Daba Mountains. This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain. (3) Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation. Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions, thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes, with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming. The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes, with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation, and vice versa for increased precipitation.</p>}},
author = {{Dong, Qingdong and Zhu, Lianqi and Duan, Zheng and Wang, Liyuan and Chen, Chaonan and Li, Yanhong and Zhu, Wenbo and Gurung, Sher Bahadur}},
issn = {{1009-637X}},
keywords = {{drought; multidecadal shift; Qinling-Daba Mountains; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; transitional zone}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{7}},
pages = {{1253--1279}},
publisher = {{Science China Press}},
series = {{Journal of Geographical Sciences}},
title = {{Interdecadal variation of drought patterns and associated influencing factors in the north-south transitional zone of China}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11442-024-2247-6}},
doi = {{10.1007/s11442-024-2247-6}},
volume = {{34}},
year = {{2024}},
}