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Review article : Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Van Loon, Anne F. ; Kchouk, Sarra ; Matanó, Alessia ; Tootoonchi, Faranak ; Alvarez-Garreton, Camila ; Hassaballah, Khalid E.A. ; Wu, Minchao LU orcid ; Wens, Marthe L.K. ; Shyrokaya, Anastasiya and Ridolfi, Elena , et al. (2024) In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24(9). p.3173-3205
Abstract

Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological,... (More)

Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
volume
24
issue
9
pages
33 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85205149950
ISSN
1561-8633
DOI
10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
9ae4300b-e9bb-40e4-8d21-238b8c891927
date added to LUP
2024-12-11 11:19:51
date last changed
2025-06-12 01:26:41
@article{9ae4300b-e9bb-40e4-8d21-238b8c891927,
  abstract     = {{<p>Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.</p>}},
  author       = {{Van Loon, Anne F. and Kchouk, Sarra and Matanó, Alessia and Tootoonchi, Faranak and Alvarez-Garreton, Camila and Hassaballah, Khalid E.A. and Wu, Minchao and Wens, Marthe L.K. and Shyrokaya, Anastasiya and Ridolfi, Elena and Biella, Riccardo and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Barendrecht, Marlies H. and Bastos, Ana and Cavalcante, Louise and de Vries, Franciska T. and Garcia, Margaret and Mård, Johanna and Streefkerk, Ileen N. and Teutschbein, Claudia and Tootoonchi, Roshanak and Weesie, Ruben and Aich, Valentin and Boisier, Juan P. and Baldassarre, Giuliano Di and Du, Yiheng and Galleguillos, Mauricio and Garreaud, René and Ionita, Monica and Khatami, Sina and Koehler, Johanna K.L. and Luce, Charles H. and Maskey, Shreedhar and Mendoza, Heidi D. and Mwangi, Moses N. and Pechlivanidis, Ilias G. and Ribeiro Neto, Germano G. and Roy, Tirthankar and Stefanski, Robert and Trambauer, Patricia and Koebele, Elizabeth A. and Vico, Giulia and Werner, Micha}},
  issn         = {{1561-8633}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{09}},
  number       = {{9}},
  pages        = {{3173--3205}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}},
  title        = {{Review article : Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024}},
  volume       = {{24}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}