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Training Legal Fact-Finders to Recognize Probabilistic Fallacies

Dahlman, Christian LU (2025) In Law, Probability and Risk 24(1). p.1-11
Abstract
An experiment was conducted to investigate the extent to which training in Bayesian thinking helps lawyers to recognize probabilistic fallacies in reasoning about legal evidence. The study showed that a limited amount of training (5 h) led to a significant improvement. However, some probabilistic fallacies emerged as more deceptive than others. The inversion fallacies (true-positive inversion and false-positive inversion) were difficult for participants to spot and explain. The results of the experiment support the view that training legal fact-finders in Bayesian thinking is worthwhile but also show that a few hours of training is not enough for the most deceptive fallacies.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Straffrätt, Criminal law
in
Law, Probability and Risk
volume
24
issue
1
pages
11 pages
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105017278018
ISSN
1470-840X
DOI
10.1093/lpr/mgaf010
language
Swedish
LU publication?
yes
id
aee478a4-d524-4f4c-a88b-fcca7fd653bd
date added to LUP
2025-09-26 18:28:31
date last changed
2025-12-08 13:17:52
@article{aee478a4-d524-4f4c-a88b-fcca7fd653bd,
  abstract     = {{An experiment was conducted to investigate the extent to which training in Bayesian thinking helps lawyers to recognize probabilistic fallacies in reasoning about legal evidence. The study showed that a limited amount of training (5 h) led to a significant improvement. However, some probabilistic fallacies emerged as more deceptive than others. The inversion fallacies (true-positive inversion and false-positive inversion) were difficult for participants to spot and explain. The results of the experiment support the view that training legal fact-finders in Bayesian thinking is worthwhile but also show that a few hours of training is not enough for the most deceptive fallacies.}},
  author       = {{Dahlman, Christian}},
  issn         = {{1470-840X}},
  keywords     = {{Straffrätt; Criminal law}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{1--11}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{Law, Probability and Risk}},
  title        = {{Training Legal Fact-Finders to Recognize Probabilistic Fallacies}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaf010}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/lpr/mgaf010}},
  volume       = {{24}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}