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Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

Kondo, Masayuki ; Ichii, Kazuhito ; Patra, Prabir K. ; Canadell, Joseph G. ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Sitch, Stephen LU ; Calle, Leonardo ; Liu, Yi Y. LU ; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M. and Saeki, Tazu , et al. (2018) In Nature Communications 9(1).
Abstract

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were... (More)

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
9
issue
1
article number
1154
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:29559637
  • scopus:85044456681
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
b055337f-78ad-44a0-8b0a-69ec646c3de4
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 22:49:00
date last changed
2024-04-17 20:05:01
@article{b055337f-78ad-44a0-8b0a-69ec646c3de4,
  abstract     = {{<p>An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO<sub>2</sub> from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kondo, Masayuki and Ichii, Kazuhito and Patra, Prabir K. and Canadell, Joseph G. and Poulter, Benjamin and Sitch, Stephen and Calle, Leonardo and Liu, Yi Y. and Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M. and Saeki, Tazu and Saigusa, Nobuko and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Arneth, Almut and Harper, Anna and Jain, Atul K. and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles and Li, Fang and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Zaehle, Sönke and Wiltshire, Andy and Chevallier, Frederic and Maki, Takashi and Nakamura, Takashi and Niwa, Yosuke and Rödenbeck, Christian}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{12}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x}},
  volume       = {{9}},
  year         = {{2018}},
}