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Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Rigby, M. ; Prinn, R. G. ; O'Doherty, S. ; Miller, B. R. ; Ivy, D. ; Mühle, J. ; Harth, C. M. ; Salameh, P. K. ; Arnold, T. LU orcid and Weiss, R. F. , et al. (2014) In Geophysical Research Letters 41(7). p.2623-2630
Abstract

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355-mW-m-2 in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to "no HFC policy" projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240-mW-m-2... (More)

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355-mW-m-2 in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to "no HFC policy" projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240-mW-m-2 by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8-years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for. Key Points Measurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
keywords
inverse modeling, radiative forcing, synthetic greenhouse gas
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
41
issue
7
pages
8 pages
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:84897352192
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
10.1002/2013GL059099
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
b1a6776f-0737-4cd8-9aa6-a09761a17426
date added to LUP
2024-10-24 18:29:53
date last changed
2025-04-25 15:54:49
@article{b1a6776f-0737-4cd8-9aa6-a09761a17426,
  abstract     = {{<p>Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355-mW-m<sup>-2</sup> in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to "no HFC policy" projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240-mW-m<sup>-2</sup> by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8-years of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for. Key Points Measurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated</p>}},
  author       = {{Rigby, M. and Prinn, R. G. and O'Doherty, S. and Miller, B. R. and Ivy, D. and Mühle, J. and Harth, C. M. and Salameh, P. K. and Arnold, T. and Weiss, R. F. and Krummel, P. B. and Steele, L. P. and Fraser, P. J. and Young, D. and Simmonds, P. G.}},
  issn         = {{0094-8276}},
  keywords     = {{inverse modeling; radiative forcing; synthetic greenhouse gas}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  number       = {{7}},
  pages        = {{2623--2630}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059099}},
  doi          = {{10.1002/2013GL059099}},
  volume       = {{41}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}