Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

PREDICTION OF REAL-TIME TRAIN ARRIVAL TIMES ALONG THE SWEDISH SOUTHERN MAINLINE

Tiong, Kah Yong LU ; Ma, Zhenliang and Palmqvist, Carl William LU orcid (2022) 18th International Conference on Railway Engineering Design and Operation, COMPRAIL 2022 In WIT Transactions on the Built Environment 213. p.135-143
Abstract

Real-time train arrival time prediction is crucial for providing passenger information and timely decision support. The paper develops methods to simultaneously predict train arrival times at downstream stations, including direct multiple output liner regression (DMOLR) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. To capture correlations of prediction equations, two bias correction terms are tested: (1) one-step prior prediction error and (2) upstream prediction errors. The models are validated on high-speed trains operation data along the Swedish Southern Mainline from 2016 to 2020. The results show that the DMOLR model slightly outperforms the SUR. The DMOLR’s prediction performance improves up to 0.32% and 24.03% in term of RMSE... (More)

Real-time train arrival time prediction is crucial for providing passenger information and timely decision support. The paper develops methods to simultaneously predict train arrival times at downstream stations, including direct multiple output liner regression (DMOLR) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. To capture correlations of prediction equations, two bias correction terms are tested: (1) one-step prior prediction error and (2) upstream prediction errors. The models are validated on high-speed trains operation data along the Swedish Southern Mainline from 2016 to 2020. The results show that the DMOLR model slightly outperforms the SUR. The DMOLR’s prediction performance improves up to 0.32% and 24.03% in term of RMSE and R2 respectively when upstream prediction errors are considered.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
direct multiple output liner regression, seemingly unrelated regression, train arrival time predictions
host publication
Computers in Railways XVIII : Railway Engineering Design and Operation - Railway Engineering Design and Operation
series title
WIT Transactions on the Built Environment
editor
Passerini, Giorgio and Mera, Jose Manuel
volume
213
pages
9 pages
publisher
WIT Press
conference name
18th International Conference on Railway Engineering Design and Operation, COMPRAIL 2022
conference location
Virtual, Online, Spain
conference dates
2022-09-21 - 2022-09-23
external identifiers
  • scopus:85144007572
ISSN
1746-4498
1743-3509
ISBN
9781784664794
DOI
10.2495/CR220121
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2022 WIT Press.
id
b4cf0c1d-9f28-4318-8427-690d18ee483c
date added to LUP
2022-12-26 10:42:10
date last changed
2024-05-30 16:58:03
@inproceedings{b4cf0c1d-9f28-4318-8427-690d18ee483c,
  abstract     = {{<p>Real-time train arrival time prediction is crucial for providing passenger information and timely decision support. The paper develops methods to simultaneously predict train arrival times at downstream stations, including direct multiple output liner regression (DMOLR) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. To capture correlations of prediction equations, two bias correction terms are tested: (1) one-step prior prediction error and (2) upstream prediction errors. The models are validated on high-speed trains operation data along the Swedish Southern Mainline from 2016 to 2020. The results show that the DMOLR model slightly outperforms the SUR. The DMOLR’s prediction performance improves up to 0.32% and 24.03% in term of RMSE and R<sup>2</sup> respectively when upstream prediction errors are considered.</p>}},
  author       = {{Tiong, Kah Yong and Ma, Zhenliang and Palmqvist, Carl William}},
  booktitle    = {{Computers in Railways XVIII : Railway Engineering Design and Operation}},
  editor       = {{Passerini, Giorgio and Mera, Jose Manuel}},
  isbn         = {{9781784664794}},
  issn         = {{1746-4498}},
  keywords     = {{direct multiple output liner regression; seemingly unrelated regression; train arrival time predictions}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  pages        = {{135--143}},
  publisher    = {{WIT Press}},
  series       = {{WIT Transactions on the Built Environment}},
  title        = {{PREDICTION OF REAL-TIME TRAIN ARRIVAL TIMES ALONG THE SWEDISH SOUTHERN MAINLINE}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/CR220121}},
  doi          = {{10.2495/CR220121}},
  volume       = {{213}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}