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Large and Increasing Biospheric Productivity of Northern Ecosystems

Cuntz, Matthias ; Smith, Benjamin LU ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Knauer, Jürgen and Haverd, Vanessa (2025) In Geophysical Research Letters 52(14).
Abstract

Plants take up carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. How this will change with rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will strongly determine future climate change. An increase in the seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 in recent decades indicates a positive trend in photosynthetic carbon uptake. We combined data-driven seasonal cycles of plant productivity with carbon sinks across the range predicted by current biospheric process models to explain the seasonal variations of CO2 at high and low northern latitudes over the past 40 years. We find that increases in seasonal variations can only be explained by a larger gross primary productivity (GPP) of northern ecosystems than... (More)

Plants take up carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. How this will change with rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will strongly determine future climate change. An increase in the seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 in recent decades indicates a positive trend in photosynthetic carbon uptake. We combined data-driven seasonal cycles of plant productivity with carbon sinks across the range predicted by current biospheric process models to explain the seasonal variations of CO2 at high and low northern latitudes over the past 40 years. We find that increases in seasonal variations can only be explained by a larger gross primary productivity (GPP) of northern ecosystems than most current estimates and by an increase of GPP about proportional to the increase in atmospheric CO2, also larger than most current estimates. Our results provide an improved constraint to estimate the future behavior of the terrestrial carbon sink.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
atmospheric CO2, CO2 fertilization, gross primary productivity, northern hemisphere, seasonal cycle
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
52
issue
14
article number
e2025GL115983
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:105010427403
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
10.1029/2025GL115983
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025. The Author(s).
id
bc99a029-d85c-4bcc-9336-a5b6352289a0
date added to LUP
2025-12-12 15:29:31
date last changed
2025-12-12 15:29:46
@article{bc99a029-d85c-4bcc-9336-a5b6352289a0,
  abstract     = {{<p>Plants take up carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) through photosynthesis. How this will change with rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in the atmosphere will strongly determine future climate change. An increase in the seasonal variations of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in recent decades indicates a positive trend in photosynthetic carbon uptake. We combined data-driven seasonal cycles of plant productivity with carbon sinks across the range predicted by current biospheric process models to explain the seasonal variations of CO<sub>2</sub> at high and low northern latitudes over the past 40 years. We find that increases in seasonal variations can only be explained by a larger gross primary productivity (GPP) of northern ecosystems than most current estimates and by an increase of GPP about proportional to the increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, also larger than most current estimates. Our results provide an improved constraint to estimate the future behavior of the terrestrial carbon sink.</p>}},
  author       = {{Cuntz, Matthias and Smith, Benjamin and Canadell, Josep G. and Knauer, Jürgen and Haverd, Vanessa}},
  issn         = {{0094-8276}},
  keywords     = {{atmospheric CO2; CO2 fertilization; gross primary productivity; northern hemisphere; seasonal cycle}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{07}},
  number       = {{14}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Large and Increasing Biospheric Productivity of Northern Ecosystems}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115983}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2025GL115983}},
  volume       = {{52}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}