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Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed

Arneth, A. LU ; Sitch, S. LU ; Pongratz, J. ; Stocker, B. D. ; Ciais, P. ; Poulter, B. ; Bayer, A. D. ; Bondeau, A. ; Calle, L. and Chini, L. P. , et al. (2017) In Nature Geoscience 10(2). p.79-84
Abstract

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change and CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO 2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of... (More)

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change and CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO 2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO 2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Geoscience
volume
10
issue
2
pages
6 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85014768533
ISSN
1752-0894
DOI
10.1038/ngeo2882
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cb399a25-b9bb-44a0-a442-96481a78e892
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 23:11:14
date last changed
2022-04-26 21:59:51
@article{cb399a25-b9bb-44a0-a442-96481a78e892,
  abstract     = {{<p>The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change and CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO 2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO 2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.</p>}},
  author       = {{Arneth, A. and Sitch, S. and Pongratz, J. and Stocker, B. D. and Ciais, P. and Poulter, B. and Bayer, A. D. and Bondeau, A. and Calle, L. and Chini, L. P. and Gasser, T. and Fader, M. and Friedlingstein, P. and Kato, E. and Li, W. and Lindeskog, M. and Nabel, J. E.M.S. and Pugh, T. A.M. and Robertson, E. and Viovy, N. and Yue, C. and Zaehle, S.}},
  issn         = {{1752-0894}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{02}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{79--84}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Geoscience}},
  title        = {{Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2882}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/ngeo2882}},
  volume       = {{10}},
  year         = {{2017}},
}