Distribution under climate change of Anemone coronaria : linking flower colour and seed dispersal
Labin, Tzlil ; Zhu, Jinlei ; Sapir, Yuval and Gobilard, Sissi Lozada LU
(2026)
In Nordic Journal of Botany
2026(6).
- Abstract
Flower colour polymorphism is driven by divergent selection regimes on the colour morphs across time and space. Anemone coronaria, a colour-polymorphic geophyte with red, purple, and white flowers, displays a geographic pattern along Israel's aridity gradient: polymorphic populations are restricted to Mediterranean climates, while monomorphic-red populations occur in both Mediterranean and semi-arid regions. This species is wind-dispersed, with achenes bearing long unicellular hairs. Here we investigate how climate may affect current and future distribution of A. coronaria considering seed dispersal abilities. We hypothesize that seed dispersal traits vary between colour morphs, influencing both current and future species distributions.... (More)
Flower colour polymorphism is driven by divergent selection regimes on the colour morphs across time and space. Anemone coronaria, a colour-polymorphic geophyte with red, purple, and white flowers, displays a geographic pattern along Israel's aridity gradient: polymorphic populations are restricted to Mediterranean climates, while monomorphic-red populations occur in both Mediterranean and semi-arid regions. This species is wind-dispersed, with achenes bearing long unicellular hairs. Here we investigate how climate may affect current and future distribution of A. coronaria considering seed dispersal abilities. We hypothesize that seed dispersal traits vary between colour morphs, influencing both current and future species distributions. Using a wind tunnel, and Wald analytical long-distance dispersal model, we estimated seed dispersal distances and the probability of long-distance dispersal (LDD) in mono- and polymorphic populations. Monomorphic-red populations and red flowers had higher tendencies of LDD, suggesting a possible advantage colonizing new habitats. To assess current distribution, we used citizen science records (iNaturalist) across Israel, classifying observations by flower colour. We then modelled future distributions by combining presence–absence data, and climate projections for the next 40–60 years under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our most important predictors were mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). Our results indicate that populations in warmer, drier regions (~ 22°C MAT, ≤ 350 mm MAP) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Monomorphic-red populations at the southern edge of the range are predicted to shift northward, while southern polymorphic populations are likely to disappear, resulting in range contraction. Although red flowers exhibited a higher LDD, this may not be sufficient to track their suitable climatic niche under future conditions. By integrating climate models, dispersal capacity, and morph-specific drought responses, our study highlights how environmental change can reshape the distribution of flower colour morphs in A. coronaria, with broader implications for plant diversity and ecosystem dynamics.
(Less)
- author
- Labin, Tzlil
; Zhu, Jinlei
; Sapir, Yuval
and Gobilard, Sissi Lozada
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-06
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- citizen science, climate change projections, flower colour polymorphism, future species distribution, poppy anemone, seed dispersal abilities
- in
- Nordic Journal of Botany
- volume
- 2026
- issue
- 6
- article number
- e05105
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105038149498
- ISSN
- 0107-055X
- DOI
- 10.1002/njb.05105
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- cd9947db-5994-4a54-9d1f-5aa7e658b3f7
- date added to LUP
- 2026-08-11 09:46:48
- date last changed
- 2026-08-11 09:47:30
@article{cd9947db-5994-4a54-9d1f-5aa7e658b3f7,
abstract = {{<p>Flower colour polymorphism is driven by divergent selection regimes on the colour morphs across time and space. Anemone coronaria, a colour-polymorphic geophyte with red, purple, and white flowers, displays a geographic pattern along Israel's aridity gradient: polymorphic populations are restricted to Mediterranean climates, while monomorphic-red populations occur in both Mediterranean and semi-arid regions. This species is wind-dispersed, with achenes bearing long unicellular hairs. Here we investigate how climate may affect current and future distribution of A. coronaria considering seed dispersal abilities. We hypothesize that seed dispersal traits vary between colour morphs, influencing both current and future species distributions. Using a wind tunnel, and Wald analytical long-distance dispersal model, we estimated seed dispersal distances and the probability of long-distance dispersal (LDD) in mono- and polymorphic populations. Monomorphic-red populations and red flowers had higher tendencies of LDD, suggesting a possible advantage colonizing new habitats. To assess current distribution, we used citizen science records (iNaturalist) across Israel, classifying observations by flower colour. We then modelled future distributions by combining presence–absence data, and climate projections for the next 40–60 years under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our most important predictors were mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). Our results indicate that populations in warmer, drier regions (~ 22°C MAT, ≤ 350 mm MAP) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Monomorphic-red populations at the southern edge of the range are predicted to shift northward, while southern polymorphic populations are likely to disappear, resulting in range contraction. Although red flowers exhibited a higher LDD, this may not be sufficient to track their suitable climatic niche under future conditions. By integrating climate models, dispersal capacity, and morph-specific drought responses, our study highlights how environmental change can reshape the distribution of flower colour morphs in A. coronaria, with broader implications for plant diversity and ecosystem dynamics.</p>}},
author = {{Labin, Tzlil and Zhu, Jinlei and Sapir, Yuval and Gobilard, Sissi Lozada}},
issn = {{0107-055X}},
keywords = {{citizen science; climate change projections; flower colour polymorphism; future species distribution; poppy anemone; seed dispersal abilities}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{6}},
publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
series = {{Nordic Journal of Botany}},
title = {{Distribution under climate change of Anemone coronaria : linking flower colour and seed dispersal}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/njb.05105}},
doi = {{10.1002/njb.05105}},
volume = {{2026}},
year = {{2026}},
}