Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality : a case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018
(2024) In Urban Climate 54.- Abstract
Recent years have seen a rise in extreme heat event (EHE)-related deaths in India. However, the impact of specific temperature thresholds on health risks remains understudied. Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM), we explored the link between EHEs, defined by various temperature thresholds, and mortality risk in Ahmedabad, India, from 2002 to 2018, considering a 21-day lag. We observed a ‘J'-shaped exposure-response curve, identifying a Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) of 26 °C for Ahmedabad. Notably, a higher and sustained risk of all-cause mortality was associated with Tmax > 35 °C. EHEs definition of Tmax ∼ 40 °C (95th percentile) increased all-cause mortality risk by 30% (Relative Risk (RR):... (More)
Recent years have seen a rise in extreme heat event (EHE)-related deaths in India. However, the impact of specific temperature thresholds on health risks remains understudied. Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM), we explored the link between EHEs, defined by various temperature thresholds, and mortality risk in Ahmedabad, India, from 2002 to 2018, considering a 21-day lag. We observed a ‘J'-shaped exposure-response curve, identifying a Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) of 26 °C for Ahmedabad. Notably, a higher and sustained risk of all-cause mortality was associated with Tmax > 35 °C. EHEs definition of Tmax ∼ 40 °C (95th percentile) increased all-cause mortality risk by 30% (Relative Risk (RR): 1.30, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.26–1.35), with substantially higher risk at Tmax of 45 °C (RR: 3.08, 95% CI: 2.47–3.83). Analysis of attributable fractions (AF) indicated Tmax ≥ 85th percentile contributed most to total mortalities, with an AF of 3.58% (95% CI: 3.20–3.96). Gender-stratified analysis revealed higher risk of EHE-related deaths for females. The highest mortality risk was identified on the same day of exposure and persisted longer during more intense EHEs. The activation of city's heat action plans should consider the significantly elevated mortality risk below the current threshold (∼40 °C) and the persistent risk during high-intensity EHEs.
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- author
- Sharma, Ayushi ; Dutta, Priya ; Shah, Priyanka ; Iyer, Veena ; He, Hao ; Sapkota, Amir ; Gao, Chuansi LU and Wang, Yu Chun
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024-03
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Ahmedabad, DLNM, Exposure-response, Extreme heat events (EHEs), Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), Mortality
- in
- Urban Climate
- volume
- 54
- article number
- 101832
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85186467636
- ISSN
- 2212-0955
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101832
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- 'This version of the article has been accepted for publication in Urban Climate: Sharma, A., Dutta, P., Shah, P., Iyer, V., He, H., Sapkota, A., Gao, C., & Wang, Y. C. (2024). Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality: a case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018. Urban Climate, 54, Article 101832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101832 '
- id
- d07f8ca8-cb9a-49e2-8324-ed22062ba04c
- date added to LUP
- 2024-03-19 17:45:39
- date last changed
- 2024-05-28 11:24:11
@article{d07f8ca8-cb9a-49e2-8324-ed22062ba04c, abstract = {{<p>Recent years have seen a rise in extreme heat event (EHE)-related deaths in India. However, the impact of specific temperature thresholds on health risks remains understudied. Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM), we explored the link between EHEs, defined by various temperature thresholds, and mortality risk in Ahmedabad, India, from 2002 to 2018, considering a 21-day lag. We observed a ‘J'-shaped exposure-response curve, identifying a Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) of 26 °C for Ahmedabad. Notably, a higher and sustained risk of all-cause mortality was associated with T<sub>max</sub> > 35 °C. EHEs definition of T<sub>max</sub> ∼ 40 °C (95th percentile) increased all-cause mortality risk by 30% (Relative Risk (RR): 1.30, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.26–1.35), with substantially higher risk at T<sub>max</sub> of 45 °C (RR: 3.08, 95% CI: 2.47–3.83). Analysis of attributable fractions (AF) indicated T<sub>max</sub> ≥ 85th percentile contributed most to total mortalities, with an AF of 3.58% (95% CI: 3.20–3.96). Gender-stratified analysis revealed higher risk of EHE-related deaths for females. The highest mortality risk was identified on the same day of exposure and persisted longer during more intense EHEs. The activation of city's heat action plans should consider the significantly elevated mortality risk below the current threshold (∼40 °C) and the persistent risk during high-intensity EHEs.</p>}}, author = {{Sharma, Ayushi and Dutta, Priya and Shah, Priyanka and Iyer, Veena and He, Hao and Sapkota, Amir and Gao, Chuansi and Wang, Yu Chun}}, issn = {{2212-0955}}, keywords = {{Ahmedabad; DLNM; Exposure-response; Extreme heat events (EHEs); Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT); Mortality}}, language = {{eng}}, publisher = {{Elsevier}}, series = {{Urban Climate}}, title = {{Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality : a case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101832}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101832}}, volume = {{54}}, year = {{2024}}, }