Predicting recurrent cardiac arrest in individuals surviving Out-of-Hospital cardiac arrest
(2023) In Resuscitation 184.- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in short-term survival for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) in the past two decades, long-term survival is still not well studied. Furthermore, the contribution of different variables on long-term survival have not been fully investigated.
AIM: Examine the 1-year prognosis of patients discharged from hospital after an OHCA. Furthermore, identify factors predicting re-arrest and/or death during 1-year follow-up.
METHODS: All patients 18 years or older surviving an OHCA and discharged from the hospital were identified from the Swedish Register for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR). Data on diagnoses, medications and socioeconomic factors was gathered from other Swedish registers. A... (More)
BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in short-term survival for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) in the past two decades, long-term survival is still not well studied. Furthermore, the contribution of different variables on long-term survival have not been fully investigated.
AIM: Examine the 1-year prognosis of patients discharged from hospital after an OHCA. Furthermore, identify factors predicting re-arrest and/or death during 1-year follow-up.
METHODS: All patients 18 years or older surviving an OHCA and discharged from the hospital were identified from the Swedish Register for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR). Data on diagnoses, medications and socioeconomic factors was gathered from other Swedish registers. A machine learning model was constructed with 886 variables and evaluated for its predictive capabilities. Variable importance was gathered from the model and new models with the most important variables were created.
RESULTS: Out of the 5098 patients included, 902 (∼18%) suffered a recurrent cardiac arrest or death within a year. For the outcome death or re-arrest within 1 year from discharge the model achieved an ROC (receiver operating characteristics) AUC (area under the curve) of 0.73. A model with the 15 most important variables achieved an AUC of 0.69.
CONCLUSIONS: Survivors of an OHCA have a high risk of suffering a re-arrest or death within 1 year from hospital discharge. A machine learning model with 15 different variables, among which age, socioeconomic factors and neurofunctional status at hospital discharge, achieved almost the same predictive capabilities with reasonable precision as the full model with 886 variables.
(Less)
- author
- publishing date
- 2023-03
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Humans, Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest/therapy, Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, Prognosis, Patient Discharge, Sweden/epidemiology
- in
- Resuscitation
- volume
- 184
- article number
- 109678
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:36581182
- scopus:85146093009
- ISSN
- 1873-1570
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2022.109678
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- additional info
- Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- id
- d9ad9425-27d4-418d-81b9-ea5f4c61d8a9
- date added to LUP
- 2025-03-05 14:55:38
- date last changed
- 2025-07-10 23:41:46
@article{d9ad9425-27d4-418d-81b9-ea5f4c61d8a9,
abstract = {{<p>BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in short-term survival for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) in the past two decades, long-term survival is still not well studied. Furthermore, the contribution of different variables on long-term survival have not been fully investigated.</p><p>AIM: Examine the 1-year prognosis of patients discharged from hospital after an OHCA. Furthermore, identify factors predicting re-arrest and/or death during 1-year follow-up.</p><p>METHODS: All patients 18 years or older surviving an OHCA and discharged from the hospital were identified from the Swedish Register for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR). Data on diagnoses, medications and socioeconomic factors was gathered from other Swedish registers. A machine learning model was constructed with 886 variables and evaluated for its predictive capabilities. Variable importance was gathered from the model and new models with the most important variables were created.</p><p>RESULTS: Out of the 5098 patients included, 902 (∼18%) suffered a recurrent cardiac arrest or death within a year. For the outcome death or re-arrest within 1 year from discharge the model achieved an ROC (receiver operating characteristics) AUC (area under the curve) of 0.73. A model with the 15 most important variables achieved an AUC of 0.69.</p><p>CONCLUSIONS: Survivors of an OHCA have a high risk of suffering a re-arrest or death within 1 year from hospital discharge. A machine learning model with 15 different variables, among which age, socioeconomic factors and neurofunctional status at hospital discharge, achieved almost the same predictive capabilities with reasonable precision as the full model with 886 variables.</p>}},
author = {{Hellsén, Gustaf and Rawshani, Aidin and Skoglund, Kristofer and Bergh, Niklas and Råmunddal, Truls and Myredal, Anna and Helleryd, Edvin and Taha, Amar and Mahmoud, Ahmad and Hjärtstam, Nellie and Backelin, Charlotte and Dahlberg, Pia and Hessulf, Fredrik and Herlitz, Johan and Engdahl, Johan and Rawshani, Araz}},
issn = {{1873-1570}},
keywords = {{Humans; Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest/therapy; Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation; Prognosis; Patient Discharge; Sweden/epidemiology}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Resuscitation}},
title = {{Predicting recurrent cardiac arrest in individuals surviving Out-of-Hospital cardiac arrest}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2022.109678}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.resuscitation.2022.109678}},
volume = {{184}},
year = {{2023}},
}