Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Controls of Spring Persistence Barrier Strength in Different ENSO Regimes and Implications for 21st Century Changes

Jin, Yishuai ; Lu, Zhengyao LU and Liu, Zhengyu (2020) In Geophysical Research Letters 47(11).
Abstract

This paper investigates potential factors that control the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring Persistence Barrier (SPB) strength in two different ENSO regimes and apply it to explain the ENSO SPB strength modulation after the 21st century. In a damped, noise-driven model, the theoretical solution of SPB strength illustrates that a weaker ENSO growth rate strengthens SPB. In the self-sustained regime, as in the Cane-Zebiak model (chaotic system), the strengthened thermodynamic damping and weakened thermocline positive feedback lead to a more negative ENSO growth rate and, in turn, a stronger SPB. Therefore, in both ENSO regimes, a weaker ENSO growth rate intensifies the SPB. The application of the theory to the real world... (More)

This paper investigates potential factors that control the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring Persistence Barrier (SPB) strength in two different ENSO regimes and apply it to explain the ENSO SPB strength modulation after the 21st century. In a damped, noise-driven model, the theoretical solution of SPB strength illustrates that a weaker ENSO growth rate strengthens SPB. In the self-sustained regime, as in the Cane-Zebiak model (chaotic system), the strengthened thermodynamic damping and weakened thermocline positive feedback lead to a more negative ENSO growth rate and, in turn, a stronger SPB. Therefore, in both ENSO regimes, a weaker ENSO growth rate intensifies the SPB. The application of the theory to the real world suggests that a more negative ENSO growth rate, corresponding to a more damped feedback system, is responsible for the stronger SPB in recent decades than in 1980–2000.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Bjerknes stability index, ENSO growth rate, seasonal persistence barrier strength, thermocline, thermodynamic damping
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
47
issue
11
article number
e2020GL088010
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85086466151
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
10.1029/2020GL088010
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
db1d58a0-99e6-487a-8edf-f8b2cdd3e699
date added to LUP
2020-07-02 13:16:53
date last changed
2022-04-18 23:15:19
@article{db1d58a0-99e6-487a-8edf-f8b2cdd3e699,
  abstract     = {{<p>This paper investigates potential factors that control the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring Persistence Barrier (SPB) strength in two different ENSO regimes and apply it to explain the ENSO SPB strength modulation after the 21st century. In a damped, noise-driven model, the theoretical solution of SPB strength illustrates that a weaker ENSO growth rate strengthens SPB. In the self-sustained regime, as in the Cane-Zebiak model (chaotic system), the strengthened thermodynamic damping and weakened thermocline positive feedback lead to a more negative ENSO growth rate and, in turn, a stronger SPB. Therefore, in both ENSO regimes, a weaker ENSO growth rate intensifies the SPB. The application of the theory to the real world suggests that a more negative ENSO growth rate, corresponding to a more damped feedback system, is responsible for the stronger SPB in recent decades than in 1980–2000.</p>}},
  author       = {{Jin, Yishuai and Lu, Zhengyao and Liu, Zhengyu}},
  issn         = {{0094-8276}},
  keywords     = {{Bjerknes stability index; ENSO growth rate; seasonal persistence barrier strength; thermocline; thermodynamic damping}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Controls of Spring Persistence Barrier Strength in Different ENSO Regimes and Implications for 21st Century Changes}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088010}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2020GL088010}},
  volume       = {{47}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}