Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends

Strandberg, Gustav ; Thomasson, August LU orcid ; Bärring, Lars ; Kjellström, Erik ; Sahlin, Michael ; Irma Wilcke, Renate Anna and Nikulin, Grigory (2026) In Weather and Climate Dynamics 7(1). p.185-200
Abstract

The need for information about climate change is great. This information is usually based on climate model data, which often have systematic biases. Furthermore, climate information is based on ensembles of climate models, which raises the question about how such ensembles are affected by the choice of models and emission scenarios. Here, we aim to describe climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries and discuss how local changes relate to global warming. We present climate change projections based on bias adjusted Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) regional climate model data centred over Sweden. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days, and fewer cold days in Sweden. The regional... (More)

The need for information about climate change is great. This information is usually based on climate model data, which often have systematic biases. Furthermore, climate information is based on ensembles of climate models, which raises the question about how such ensembles are affected by the choice of models and emission scenarios. Here, we aim to describe climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries and discuss how local changes relate to global warming. We present climate change projections based on bias adjusted Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) regional climate model data centred over Sweden. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days, and fewer cold days in Sweden. The regional climate models replicate the signal of the driving global models. Yet, the model spread is smaller than in the full CMIP5 ensemble, which means that the RCMs do not fully represent the potential model spread. The choice of emission scenario has minimal effect on the calculation of mean climate change at a global warming level of 2 degrees. This implies that it would be safe to mix emission scenarios in calculations of global warming levels, at least up to +2 °C, and as long as mean values are concerned. Moreover, the differences in local and global warming rates seem to decrease with time, suggesting that climate change in Sweden may currently be at its fastest.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Weather and Climate Dynamics
volume
7
issue
1
pages
16 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:105028892030
ISSN
2698-4016
DOI
10.5194/wcd-7-185-2026
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dd6e81ca-9ded-4e1c-9f8d-80f9a2a394da
date added to LUP
2026-02-19 14:53:04
date last changed
2026-02-19 14:54:29
@article{dd6e81ca-9ded-4e1c-9f8d-80f9a2a394da,
  abstract     = {{<p>The need for information about climate change is great. This information is usually based on climate model data, which often have systematic biases. Furthermore, climate information is based on ensembles of climate models, which raises the question about how such ensembles are affected by the choice of models and emission scenarios. Here, we aim to describe climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries and discuss how local changes relate to global warming. We present climate change projections based on bias adjusted Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) regional climate model data centred over Sweden. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days, and fewer cold days in Sweden. The regional climate models replicate the signal of the driving global models. Yet, the model spread is smaller than in the full CMIP5 ensemble, which means that the RCMs do not fully represent the potential model spread. The choice of emission scenario has minimal effect on the calculation of mean climate change at a global warming level of 2 degrees. This implies that it would be safe to mix emission scenarios in calculations of global warming levels, at least up to +2 °C, and as long as mean values are concerned. Moreover, the differences in local and global warming rates seem to decrease with time, suggesting that climate change in Sweden may currently be at its fastest.</p>}},
  author       = {{Strandberg, Gustav and Thomasson, August and Bärring, Lars and Kjellström, Erik and Sahlin, Michael and Irma Wilcke, Renate Anna and Nikulin, Grigory}},
  issn         = {{2698-4016}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{185--200}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Weather and Climate Dynamics}},
  title        = {{Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-185-2026}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/wcd-7-185-2026}},
  volume       = {{7}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}