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Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay : A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK

Altmejd, Adam ; Rocklöv, Joacim and Wallin, Jonas LU (2023) In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20(4).
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the “removal method”—a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.

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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
COVID-19, nowcasting, prediction
in
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
volume
20
issue
4
article number
3040
publisher
MDPI AG
external identifiers
  • scopus:85148964982
  • pmid:36833733
ISSN
1661-7827
DOI
10.3390/ijerph20043040
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
eafac833-cabb-44df-b29c-ec9ae992cf87
date added to LUP
2023-03-20 09:27:59
date last changed
2024-05-30 23:41:24
@article{eafac833-cabb-44df-b29c-ec9ae992cf87,
  abstract     = {{<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the “removal method”—a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.</p>}},
  author       = {{Altmejd, Adam and Rocklöv, Joacim and Wallin, Jonas}},
  issn         = {{1661-7827}},
  keywords     = {{COVID-19; nowcasting; prediction}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{4}},
  publisher    = {{MDPI AG}},
  series       = {{International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}},
  title        = {{Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay : A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043040}},
  doi          = {{10.3390/ijerph20043040}},
  volume       = {{20}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}