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Resolving uncertainty in the response of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle to projected climate change

Teckentrup, Lina ; De Kauwe, Martin G. ; Pitman, Andy ; Wårlind, David LU orcid ; Ukkola, Anna M. and Smith, Benjamin LU (2024) In Geophysical Research Letters 51(22).
Abstract
Semi-arid ecosystems, common across the Australian continent, strongly influence the inter-annual variability and trend in the global terrestrial net carbon sink. Here we explore the future Australian terrestrial carbon cycle using the CMIP6 ensemble, and the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Uncertainty in Australia's carbon storage in vegetation ranged between 6 and 49 PgC at the end of the century and was strongly linked to biases in the meteorological forcing. Using LPJ-GUESS with bias-corrected meteorological forcing reduced uncertainty in the vegetation carbon storage to between 14 and 20 PgC, with the remaining range linked to model sensitivities to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation... (More)
Semi-arid ecosystems, common across the Australian continent, strongly influence the inter-annual variability and trend in the global terrestrial net carbon sink. Here we explore the future Australian terrestrial carbon cycle using the CMIP6 ensemble, and the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Uncertainty in Australia's carbon storage in vegetation ranged between 6 and 49 PgC at the end of the century and was strongly linked to biases in the meteorological forcing. Using LPJ-GUESS with bias-corrected meteorological forcing reduced uncertainty in the vegetation carbon storage to between 14 and 20 PgC, with the remaining range linked to model sensitivities to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation variability. Reducing this uncertainty will require improved terrestrial biosphere models, but also major improvements in the simulation of regional precipitation by Global Climate Models. (Less)
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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
LPJ-GUESS, Climate change, Carbon cycle, Modelling, Australia
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
51
issue
22
article number
e2024GL111398
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85209187009
ISSN
1944-8007
DOI
10.1029/2024GL111398
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ec87ec83-2924-4e66-9495-2c89524b5aa8
date added to LUP
2024-12-13 15:27:44
date last changed
2025-04-04 15:18:02
@article{ec87ec83-2924-4e66-9495-2c89524b5aa8,
  abstract     = {{Semi-arid ecosystems, common across the Australian continent, strongly influence the inter-annual variability and trend in the global terrestrial net carbon sink. Here we explore the future Australian terrestrial carbon cycle using the CMIP6 ensemble, and the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Uncertainty in Australia's carbon storage in vegetation ranged between 6 and 49 PgC at the end of the century and was strongly linked to biases in the meteorological forcing. Using LPJ-GUESS with bias-corrected meteorological forcing reduced uncertainty in the vegetation carbon storage to between 14 and 20 PgC, with the remaining range linked to model sensitivities to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation variability. Reducing this uncertainty will require improved terrestrial biosphere models, but also major improvements in the simulation of regional precipitation by Global Climate Models.}},
  author       = {{Teckentrup, Lina and De Kauwe, Martin G. and Pitman, Andy and Wårlind, David and Ukkola, Anna M. and Smith, Benjamin}},
  issn         = {{1944-8007}},
  keywords     = {{LPJ-GUESS; Climate change; Carbon cycle; Modelling; Australia}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  number       = {{22}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Resolving uncertainty in the response of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle to projected climate change}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111398}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2024GL111398}},
  volume       = {{51}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}