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Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species despite conservation policies in Europe

Rigal, Stanislas ; Lenormand, Maxime ; Tardieu, Léa ; Auniņš, Ainārs ; Bakx, Tristan ; Brambilla, Mattia ; Brotons, Lluis ; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz ; Fontaine, Benoît and Fric, Zdenek Faltynek , et al. (2025)
Abstract (Swedish)
In response to increasing threats to biodiversity, conservation objectives have been set at national and international level, with the aim of halting biodiversity decline by reducing direct anthropogenic pressures on species. However, the potential effects of conservation policies derived from these objectives on common species remain rarely studied. Common species are often not the primary species targeted by conservation measures and can be distributed across a wide range of habitats that may be affected differently by these measures. We analyse the effect of a range of pressures related to climate, land use and land use intensity, on 263 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021... (More)
In response to increasing threats to biodiversity, conservation objectives have been set at national and international level, with the aim of halting biodiversity decline by reducing direct anthropogenic pressures on species. However, the potential effects of conservation policies derived from these objectives on common species remain rarely studied. Common species are often not the primary species targeted by conservation measures and can be distributed across a wide range of habitats that may be affected differently by these measures. We analyse the effect of a range of pressures related to climate, land use and land use intensity, on 263 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 26 European countries. We use land-use and land-use-intensity change scenarios produced previously using the IPBES Nature Futures Framework to support the achievement of conservation objectives, as well as climate change scenarios in order to project the future of biodiversity pressures in Europe up to 2050. To project the future of common biodiversity in these scenarios, we translate these pressure changes into expected variations of abundances for all common bird and butterfly species, as well as for the multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends are improved, while still declining, for birds in particular farmland species under the scenarios that meet the conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species that are currently common, on the time scale considered. Our results therefore call into question the fate of common biodiversity under the current conservation policies and the need for other anticipatory frameworks that do not implicitly require a growing need for natural resources. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
publisher
arXiv.org
DOI
10.48550/arXiv.2509.18227
project
Svensk Dagfjärilsövervakning
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures + Appendix
id
f9cb0038-702c-45ed-8f3a-5654bcafc117
alternative location
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.18227v1
date added to LUP
2026-02-25 11:13:03
date last changed
2026-05-11 09:25:53
@misc{f9cb0038-702c-45ed-8f3a-5654bcafc117,
  abstract     = {{In response to increasing threats to biodiversity, conservation objectives have been set at national and international level, with the aim of halting biodiversity decline by reducing direct anthropogenic pressures on species. However, the potential effects of conservation policies derived from these objectives on common species remain rarely studied. Common species are often not the primary species targeted by conservation measures and can be distributed across a wide range of habitats that may be affected differently by these measures. We analyse the effect of a range of pressures related to climate, land use and land use intensity, on 263 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 26 European countries. We use land-use and land-use-intensity change scenarios produced previously using the IPBES Nature Futures Framework to support the achievement of conservation objectives, as well as climate change scenarios in order to project the future of biodiversity pressures in Europe up to 2050. To project the future of common biodiversity in these scenarios, we translate these pressure changes into expected variations of abundances for all common bird and butterfly species, as well as for the multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends are improved, while still declining, for birds in particular farmland species under the scenarios that meet the conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species that are currently common, on the time scale considered. Our results therefore call into question the fate of common biodiversity under the current conservation policies and the need for other anticipatory frameworks that do not implicitly require a growing need for natural resources.}},
  author       = {{Rigal, Stanislas and Lenormand, Maxime and Tardieu, Léa and Auniņš, Ainārs and Bakx, Tristan and Brambilla, Mattia and Brotons, Lluis and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Fontaine, Benoît and Fric, Zdenek Faltynek and Gamero, Anna and Herrando, Sergi and Kålås, John Atle and Kamp, Johannes and Kurlavičienė, Petras and Kuussaari, Mikko and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Maes, Dirk and Mestdagh, Xavier and Musche, Martin and Øien, Ingar Jostein and Pettersson, Lars B. and Reif, Jiří and Rüdisser, Johannes Markus and Šašić, Martina and Schmucki, Reto and Stefanescu, Constanti and Stokke, Bård Gunnar and Strebel, Nicolas and Titeux, Nicolas and Trautmann, Sven and Swaay, Chris Van and Luque, Sandra}},
  keywords     = {{Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Preprint}},
  publisher    = {{arXiv.org}},
  title        = {{Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species despite conservation policies in Europe}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.18227}},
  doi          = {{10.48550/arXiv.2509.18227}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}