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Experience with a System Dynamics model in a prospective study on the future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability

Wäger, Patrick A. ; Hilty, Lorenz M. ; Arnfalk, Peter LU ; Erdmann, Lorenz and Goodman, James (2006) 3rd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2006
Abstract

To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System... (More)

To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System Dynamics would be needed to create models that are communicable and have an adequate epistemic connectivity to the scientific and political discourse.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Environmental modeling, Information and communication technologies, Prospective studies, Socio-economic modeling, Sustainable development, System Dynamics
host publication
Proceedings of the iEMSs 3rd Biennial Meeting,Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software
conference name
3rd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2006
conference location
Burlington, VT, United States
conference dates
2006-07-09 - 2006-07-13
external identifiers
  • scopus:84858684456
ISBN
1424308526
9781424308521
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
06ac5eb9-681d-487b-b59c-f7f7306d9162
date added to LUP
2018-08-15 15:04:59
date last changed
2020-01-13 00:52:30
@inproceedings{06ac5eb9-681d-487b-b59c-f7f7306d9162,
  abstract     = {<p>To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System Dynamics would be needed to create models that are communicable and have an adequate epistemic connectivity to the scientific and political discourse.</p>},
  author       = {Wäger, Patrick A. and Hilty, Lorenz M. and Arnfalk, Peter and Erdmann, Lorenz and Goodman, James},
  booktitle    = {Proceedings of the iEMSs 3rd Biennial Meeting,Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software},
  isbn         = {1424308526},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {12},
  title        = {Experience with a System Dynamics model in a prospective study on the future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability},
  year         = {2006},
}