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Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region

Pongrácz, Alexandra LU orcid ; Wårlind, David LU orcid ; Miller, Paul LU ; Gustafson, Adrian LU ; Rabin, Sam S. and Parmentier, Frans-Jan LU (2024) In Communications Earth and Environment 5(1).
Abstract
The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging... (More)
The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging trends across landscapes - to more accurately simulate the strength of Arctic-Boreal carbon feedbacks and their impact on global climate. (Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging... (More)
The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging trends across landscapes - to more accurately simulate the strength of Arctic-Boreal carbon feedbacks and their impact on global climate. (Less)
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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Arctic-boreal, snow, LPJ-GUESS
in
Communications Earth and Environment
volume
5
issue
1
article number
684
publisher
Springer Nature
external identifiers
  • scopus:85209827547
ISSN
2662-4435
DOI
10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
project
WINTERGAP: Quantifying the impact of winter warming on the Arctic carbon cycling and associated climate feedbacks
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0e772c02-7987-4b84-8af6-e9e546519210
date added to LUP
2024-12-08 12:56:59
date last changed
2025-01-08 15:07:19
@article{0e772c02-7987-4b84-8af6-e9e546519210,
  abstract     = {{The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging trends across landscapes - to more accurately simulate the strength of Arctic-Boreal carbon feedbacks and their impact on global climate.}},
  author       = {{Pongrácz, Alexandra and Wårlind, David and Miller, Paul and Gustafson, Adrian and Rabin, Sam S. and Parmentier, Frans-Jan}},
  issn         = {{2662-4435}},
  keywords     = {{Arctic-boreal; snow; LPJ-GUESS}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Nature}},
  series       = {{Communications Earth and Environment}},
  title        = {{Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1}},
  volume       = {{5}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}