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Uncertainties and recommendations

Callaghan, Terry V.; Björn, Lars Olof LU ; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben LU ; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A.; Johansson, Margareta LU ; Jolly, Dyanna and Jonasson, Sven, et al. (2004) In Ambio 33(7). p.474-479
Abstract
An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The... (More)
An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic. (Less)
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publication status
published
subject
in
Ambio
volume
33
issue
7
pages
474 - 479
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000225006300010
  • pmid:15573575
ISSN
0044-7447
DOI
10.1579/0044-7447-33.7.474
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
53c5bc98-0f58-468e-9ee0-f28b6331d5b7 (old id 132584)
date added to LUP
2007-07-23 09:49:30
date last changed
2016-04-16 03:16:20
@article{53c5bc98-0f58-468e-9ee0-f28b6331d5b7,
  abstract     = {An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.},
  author       = {Callaghan, Terry V. and Björn, Lars Olof and Chernov, Yuri and Chapin, Terry and Christensen, Torben and Huntley, Brian and Ims, Rolf A. and Johansson, Margareta and Jolly, Dyanna and Jonasson, Sven and Matveyeva, Nadya and Panikov, Nicolai and Oechel, Walter and Shaver, Gus},
  issn         = {0044-7447},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {474--479},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Ambio},
  title        = {Uncertainties and recommendations},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.7.474},
  volume       = {33},
  year         = {2004},
}