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Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Wang, Yafei LU ; Ye, Yuxuan ; Nicholls, Robert J. ; Olsson, Lennart LU orcid ; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ; Peterson, Garry ; He, Yao ; Li, Manchun ; Fan, Jie and Scown, Murray LU (2025) In Nature Climate Change 15(10). p.1071-1077
Abstract

Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of... (More)

Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Climate Change
volume
15
issue
10
pages
7 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:105017068613
ISSN
1758-678X
DOI
10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
134988e2-3ffa-4a7f-b18d-2b123054f1ec
date added to LUP
2025-12-08 14:45:17
date last changed
2025-12-08 14:46:18
@article{134988e2-3ffa-4a7f-b18d-2b123054f1ec,
  abstract     = {{<p>Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wang, Yafei and Ye, Yuxuan and Nicholls, Robert J. and Olsson, Lennart and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Peterson, Garry and He, Yao and Li, Manchun and Fan, Jie and Scown, Murray}},
  issn         = {{1758-678X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{10}},
  pages        = {{1071--1077}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Climate Change}},
  title        = {{Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}