Advanced

Evaluating the Seriousness of Disasters: An Empirical Study of Preferences

Hassel, Henrik LU ; Tehler, Henrik LU and Abrahamsson, Marcus LU (2009) In International Journal of Emergency Management 6(1). p.33-54
Abstract
In making societal decisions concerning hazards with potentially disastrous consequences it is important to have soundly based knowledge of how people evaluate the seriousness of disasters. In the present study a group of students evaluated the seriousness of disasters described in terms of four basic attributes (and their ranges): number of fatalities (0-1000), number of serious injuries (0-4000), economic loss (0-40 billion SEK), and cause of the disaster (natural, accidental, terrorism). Attribute weights were elicited by two separate methods, which taken together provides insight into the stability and the uncertainty of the weights elicited. Most participants regarded attributes related to physical harm, especially the number of... (More)
In making societal decisions concerning hazards with potentially disastrous consequences it is important to have soundly based knowledge of how people evaluate the seriousness of disasters. In the present study a group of students evaluated the seriousness of disasters described in terms of four basic attributes (and their ranges): number of fatalities (0-1000), number of serious injuries (0-4000), economic loss (0-40 billion SEK), and cause of the disaster (natural, accidental, terrorism). Attribute weights were elicited by two separate methods, which taken together provides insight into the stability and the uncertainty of the weights elicited. Most participants regarded attributes related to physical harm, especially the number of fatalities, a finding that, however, must be seen in relation to the ranges of the attributes. In addition, the cause of a disaster also affected many of the participants’ judgments of its seriousness. The findings of this paper are of value to societal decision making, particularly in the case of projects of small to medium size in which specific elicitations of stakeholders’ values are rarely made. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
value elicitation, Scenario evaluation, disaster seriousness, preferences
in
International Journal of Emergency Management
volume
6
issue
1
pages
33 - 54
publisher
Inderscience
external identifiers
  • scopus:66149161885
ISSN
1471-4825
DOI
10.1504/IJEM.2009.025172
project
FRIVA
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
352e3daf-f0c3-4769-91c7-916037e20dd0 (old id 1429575)
date added to LUP
2009-08-23 18:20:09
date last changed
2017-01-01 04:27:31
@article{352e3daf-f0c3-4769-91c7-916037e20dd0,
  abstract     = {In making societal decisions concerning hazards with potentially disastrous consequences it is important to have soundly based knowledge of how people evaluate the seriousness of disasters. In the present study a group of students evaluated the seriousness of disasters described in terms of four basic attributes (and their ranges): number of fatalities (0-1000), number of serious injuries (0-4000), economic loss (0-40 billion SEK), and cause of the disaster (natural, accidental, terrorism). Attribute weights were elicited by two separate methods, which taken together provides insight into the stability and the uncertainty of the weights elicited. Most participants regarded attributes related to physical harm, especially the number of fatalities, a finding that, however, must be seen in relation to the ranges of the attributes. In addition, the cause of a disaster also affected many of the participants’ judgments of its seriousness. The findings of this paper are of value to societal decision making, particularly in the case of projects of small to medium size in which specific elicitations of stakeholders’ values are rarely made.},
  author       = {Hassel, Henrik and Tehler, Henrik and Abrahamsson, Marcus},
  issn         = {1471-4825},
  keyword      = {value elicitation,Scenario evaluation,disaster seriousness,preferences},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {33--54},
  publisher    = {Inderscience},
  series       = {International Journal of Emergency Management},
  title        = {Evaluating the Seriousness of Disasters: An Empirical Study of Preferences},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2009.025172},
  volume       = {6},
  year         = {2009},
}