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Risk of collapse in the eastern Baltic cod fishery

Jonzén, Niclas LU ; Cardinale, M; Gårdmark, Anna LU ; Arrhenius, F and Lundberg, Per LU (2002) In Marine Ecology - Progress Series 240. p.225-233
Abstract
The eastern Baltic cod fishery, as many fisheries worldwide, is experiencing a major crisis. The combination of current environmental conditions, fishing mortality rates, and stock size indicates that this fishery is not sustainable. In order to rebuild the population and sustain the fishery in the future, it is essential to define a biologically appropriate exploitation level. In this paper, we take a decision-theoretical approach and use risk analysis to compare different management actions in terms of fishing mortality rates, and predict stock size in a short, medium and long-term perspective. We consider alternative hypotheses about the stock biomass in 1999 and analyse the risk of stock decline below three thresholds: quasi-extinction... (More)
The eastern Baltic cod fishery, as many fisheries worldwide, is experiencing a major crisis. The combination of current environmental conditions, fishing mortality rates, and stock size indicates that this fishery is not sustainable. In order to rebuild the population and sustain the fishery in the future, it is essential to define a biologically appropriate exploitation level. In this paper, we take a decision-theoretical approach and use risk analysis to compare different management actions in terms of fishing mortality rates, and predict stock size in a short, medium and long-term perspective. We consider alternative hypotheses about the stock biomass in 1999 and analyse the risk of stock decline below three thresholds: quasi-extinction (Bext, defined by us), the safe biological limit, and the precautionary approach limit as defined by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Results show that the current fishing mortality implies a tremendous risk of driving the Baltic cod stock below Bext (1000 t) within 10 yr. This result is robust to alternative assumptions about model structure as well as to the magnitude of environmental stochasticity. Hence, we consider a substantial reduction of the fishing mortality to be the only way of avoiding the far-reaching ecological and

socio-economic consequences of continued exploitation at current levels. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Marine Ecology - Progress Series
volume
240
pages
225 - 233
publisher
Inter-Research
external identifiers
  • wos:000178457600021
  • scopus:0037068765
ISSN
1616-1599
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2404102d-5dbe-4223-b1ed-7ffcf22fdb45 (old id 149244)
alternative location
http://www.int-res.com/articles/meps2002/240/m240p225.pdf
date added to LUP
2007-07-03 12:52:56
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:11:09
@article{2404102d-5dbe-4223-b1ed-7ffcf22fdb45,
  abstract     = {The eastern Baltic cod fishery, as many fisheries worldwide, is experiencing a major crisis. The combination of current environmental conditions, fishing mortality rates, and stock size indicates that this fishery is not sustainable. In order to rebuild the population and sustain the fishery in the future, it is essential to define a biologically appropriate exploitation level. In this paper, we take a decision-theoretical approach and use risk analysis to compare different management actions in terms of fishing mortality rates, and predict stock size in a short, medium and long-term perspective. We consider alternative hypotheses about the stock biomass in 1999 and analyse the risk of stock decline below three thresholds: quasi-extinction (Bext, defined by us), the safe biological limit, and the precautionary approach limit as defined by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Results show that the current fishing mortality implies a tremendous risk of driving the Baltic cod stock below Bext (1000 t) within 10 yr. This result is robust to alternative assumptions about model structure as well as to the magnitude of environmental stochasticity. Hence, we consider a substantial reduction of the fishing mortality to be the only way of avoiding the far-reaching ecological and<br/><br>
socio-economic consequences of continued exploitation at current levels.},
  author       = {Jonzén, Niclas and Cardinale, M and Gårdmark, Anna and Arrhenius, F and Lundberg, Per},
  issn         = {1616-1599},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {225--233},
  publisher    = {Inter-Research},
  series       = {Marine Ecology - Progress Series},
  title        = {Risk of collapse in the eastern Baltic cod fishery},
  volume       = {240},
  year         = {2002},
}