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Global warming driving increased winter CO2 emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region

Wei, Yuguo ; Mu, Cuicui ; Chen, Deliang ; Mo, Xiaoxiao LU ; Elberling, Bo ; Zhang, Wenxin LU orcid ; Zhang, Guofei ; Zhang, Chunling ; Li, Kun and Li, Xiaodong , et al. (2026) In Innovation Geoscience 4(1).
Abstract

Global warming accelerates the breakdown of carbon stored in permafrost regions, releasing it into the atmosphere and amplifying climate change, particularly during winter when photosynthesis ceases. The Northern Hemisphere's permafrost is primarily concentrated in two key regions — the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau — each with distinct environmental characteristics. However, previous studies often treat these regions separately, missing the opportunity to compare their winter CO2 emissions within a unified framework. Here, we synthesized 2,487 monthly CO2 flux measurements from 166 in-situ sites to quantify the spatial and temporal variations and key drivers of winter CO2 emissions in these two... (More)

Global warming accelerates the breakdown of carbon stored in permafrost regions, releasing it into the atmosphere and amplifying climate change, particularly during winter when photosynthesis ceases. The Northern Hemisphere's permafrost is primarily concentrated in two key regions — the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau — each with distinct environmental characteristics. However, previous studies often treat these regions separately, missing the opportunity to compare their winter CO2 emissions within a unified framework. Here, we synthesized 2,487 monthly CO2 flux measurements from 166 in-situ sites to quantify the spatial and temporal variations and key drivers of winter CO2 emissions in these two regions. Our analysis reveals that combined winter emissions from the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are estimated to be 1,289 ± 25 Tg C yr-1. From 1982 to 2022, winter CO2 emissions increased by 2.10 ± 0.23 Tg C yr-1. Notably, since 2001, winter CO2 emissions have surged in the Arctic while declining in the Tibetan Plateau. The driving factors also differ: soil temperature dominates in the Arctic (51%), whereas soil moisture plays the most significant role on the Tibetan Plateau (33%). These findings highlight the contrasting mechanisms governing winter carbon emissions in these regions and underscore the importance of incorporating region-specific factors when predicting permafrost-carbon feedbacks in a warming world.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Innovation Geoscience
volume
4
issue
1
article number
100185
publisher
Innovation Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105028220478
DOI
10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s).
id
16840d66-4820-468b-a5c5-0af1145ab862
date added to LUP
2026-02-19 16:05:03
date last changed
2026-02-20 03:33:35
@article{16840d66-4820-468b-a5c5-0af1145ab862,
  abstract     = {{<p>Global warming accelerates the breakdown of carbon stored in permafrost regions, releasing it into the atmosphere and amplifying climate change, particularly during winter when photosynthesis ceases. The Northern Hemisphere's permafrost is primarily concentrated in two key regions — the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau — each with distinct environmental characteristics. However, previous studies often treat these regions separately, missing the opportunity to compare their winter CO<sub>2</sub> emissions within a unified framework. Here, we synthesized 2,487 monthly CO<sub>2</sub> flux measurements from 166 in-situ sites to quantify the spatial and temporal variations and key drivers of winter CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in these two regions. Our analysis reveals that combined winter emissions from the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are estimated to be 1,289 ± 25 Tg C yr<sup>-1</sup>. From 1982 to 2022, winter CO<sub>2</sub> emissions increased by 2.10 ± 0.23 Tg C yr<sup>-1</sup>. Notably, since 2001, winter CO<sub>2</sub> emissions have surged in the Arctic while declining in the Tibetan Plateau. The driving factors also differ: soil temperature dominates in the Arctic (51%), whereas soil moisture plays the most significant role on the Tibetan Plateau (33%). These findings highlight the contrasting mechanisms governing winter carbon emissions in these regions and underscore the importance of incorporating region-specific factors when predicting permafrost-carbon feedbacks in a warming world.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wei, Yuguo and Mu, Cuicui and Chen, Deliang and Mo, Xiaoxiao and Elberling, Bo and Zhang, Wenxin and Zhang, Guofei and Zhang, Chunling and Li, Kun and Li, Xiaodong and Shi, Mingming and Mu, Mei and Wang, Xufeng and Wei, Da and Dou, Tianbao and Du, Xinlong and Peng, Xiaoqing and Jin, Yanxiang and Xiao, Jingfeng and Ciais, Philippe}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Innovation Press}},
  series       = {{Innovation Geoscience}},
  title        = {{Global warming driving increased winter CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185}},
  doi          = {{10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185}},
  volume       = {{4}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}