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The Ageing Population

Bengtsson, Tommy LU and Scott, Kirk (2010) In Population Ageing - A Threat to the Welfare State? The Case of Sweden p.7-22
Abstract
The process of population ageing that has been occurring in Sweden can be expected to continue during the coming decades, the population pyramid will become increasingly rectangular, and possibly even demonstrating a shrinking base. This will lead to increasing challenges in terms of financing pensions, elderly care and healtcare. These problems will continue for at least 30 years with no demographic solutions available. Immigration is not likely to offset population ageing to any larger degree, and even dramatic increases in fertility reates would take 25-30 years to have any positive effect. Since increasing tax rates seems unlikely, the most viable solution lies in an expansion of the workforce and the resulting increase of the tax... (More)
The process of population ageing that has been occurring in Sweden can be expected to continue during the coming decades, the population pyramid will become increasingly rectangular, and possibly even demonstrating a shrinking base. This will lead to increasing challenges in terms of financing pensions, elderly care and healtcare. These problems will continue for at least 30 years with no demographic solutions available. Immigration is not likely to offset population ageing to any larger degree, and even dramatic increases in fertility reates would take 25-30 years to have any positive effect. Since increasing tax rates seems unlikely, the most viable solution lies in an expansion of the workforce and the resulting increase of the tax base. If we rely solely on increasing the retirement age to provide the increased hours worked, we would need to raise the minimum retirement age by roughly 5 years until 2050. While this might be possible, it is more likely that the solution lies not in this or any other single measure but in a combination thereof. However, expanding hours worked not only requires incentives but also job opportunities. Thus the policy should aim not only at expanding the labour supply but also labour demand. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
categories
Popular Science
in
Population Ageing - A Threat to the Welfare State? The Case of Sweden
editor
Bengtsson, Tommy
pages
7 - 22
publisher
Springer
ISBN
978-3-642-12611-6
DOI
10.1007/978-3-642-12612-3
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
325d4fd7-0040-4fdc-8380-c6aaa183f5a9 (old id 1702113)
date added to LUP
2010-10-29 14:25:08
date last changed
2016-04-19 14:33:18
@inbook{325d4fd7-0040-4fdc-8380-c6aaa183f5a9,
  abstract     = {The process of population ageing that has been occurring in Sweden can be expected to continue during the coming decades, the population pyramid will become increasingly rectangular, and possibly even demonstrating a shrinking base. This will lead to increasing challenges in terms of financing pensions, elderly care and healtcare. These problems will continue for at least 30 years with no demographic solutions available. Immigration is not likely to offset population ageing to any larger degree, and even dramatic increases in fertility reates would take 25-30 years to have any positive effect. Since increasing tax rates seems unlikely, the most viable solution lies in an expansion of the workforce and the resulting increase of the tax base. If we rely solely on increasing the retirement age to provide the increased hours worked, we would need to raise the minimum retirement age by roughly 5 years until 2050. While this might be possible, it is more likely that the solution lies not in this or any other single measure but in a combination thereof. However, expanding hours worked not only requires incentives but also job opportunities. Thus the policy should aim not only at expanding the labour supply but also labour demand.},
  author       = {Bengtsson, Tommy and Scott, Kirk},
  editor       = {Bengtsson, Tommy},
  isbn         = {978-3-642-12611-6},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {7--22},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Population Ageing - A Threat to the Welfare State? The Case of Sweden},
  title        = {The Ageing Population},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12612-3},
  year         = {2010},
}