Advanced

Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach

Foster, Kean L. and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia LU (2010) In Nordic Hydrology 41(6). p.503-507
Abstract
This work investigates the predictability of seasonal to inter-annual streamflow over several river basins in Norway through the use of multi-model ensembles. As general circulation models (GCMs) do not explicitly simulate streamflow, a statistical link is made between GCM-forecast fields generated in December and average streamflow in the melting season May-June. By using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) three models were constructed and from these a multi-model was built. The multi-model forecast is tested against climatology to determine the quality of the forecast. Results from the forecasts show that the multi-model performs better than the individual models and that this method shows improved forecast skills if compared to... (More)
This work investigates the predictability of seasonal to inter-annual streamflow over several river basins in Norway through the use of multi-model ensembles. As general circulation models (GCMs) do not explicitly simulate streamflow, a statistical link is made between GCM-forecast fields generated in December and average streamflow in the melting season May-June. By using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) three models were constructed and from these a multi-model was built. The multi-model forecast is tested against climatology to determine the quality of the forecast. Results from the forecasts show that the multi-model performs better than the individual models and that this method shows improved forecast skills if compared to previous studies conducted in the same basins. The highest forecast skills are found for basins located in the southwest of Norway. The physical interpretation for this is that stations on the windward side of the Scandinavian mountains are exposed to the prevailing winds from the Atlantic Ocean, a principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on this timescale. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
downscaling, canonical correlation analysis, climate predictability tool, general circulation model
in
Nordic Hydrology
volume
41
issue
6
pages
503 - 507
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000282363300006
  • scopus:78651062626
ISSN
1996-9694
DOI
10.2166/nh.2010.143
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
aeb07a2e-3b1a-4f8e-840a-5d08a999fe64 (old id 1727149)
date added to LUP
2010-11-26 14:51:48
date last changed
2018-06-03 03:13:47
@article{aeb07a2e-3b1a-4f8e-840a-5d08a999fe64,
  abstract     = {This work investigates the predictability of seasonal to inter-annual streamflow over several river basins in Norway through the use of multi-model ensembles. As general circulation models (GCMs) do not explicitly simulate streamflow, a statistical link is made between GCM-forecast fields generated in December and average streamflow in the melting season May-June. By using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) three models were constructed and from these a multi-model was built. The multi-model forecast is tested against climatology to determine the quality of the forecast. Results from the forecasts show that the multi-model performs better than the individual models and that this method shows improved forecast skills if compared to previous studies conducted in the same basins. The highest forecast skills are found for basins located in the southwest of Norway. The physical interpretation for this is that stations on the windward side of the Scandinavian mountains are exposed to the prevailing winds from the Atlantic Ocean, a principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on this timescale.},
  author       = {Foster, Kean L. and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia},
  issn         = {1996-9694},
  keyword      = {downscaling,canonical correlation analysis,climate predictability tool,general circulation model},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {503--507},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Nordic Hydrology},
  title        = {Seasonal streamflow forecast: a GCM multi-model downscaling approach},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.143},
  volume       = {41},
  year         = {2010},
}