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Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data

Rayner, P. J. ; Koffi, E. ; Scholze, M. LU ; Kaminski, T. and Dufresne, J. L. (2011) In Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science 369(1943). p.1955-1966
Abstract

We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO2 flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Carbon cycle, Data assimilation, Terrestrial uptake
in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science
volume
369
issue
1943
pages
12 pages
publisher
Royal Society Publishing
external identifiers
  • pmid:21502169
  • scopus:79957603037
ISSN
1364-503X
DOI
10.1098/rsta.2010.0378
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
18354c73-e92f-40b8-a4a5-957ef7c1b563
date added to LUP
2019-03-14 21:18:16
date last changed
2024-07-23 11:10:27
@article{18354c73-e92f-40b8-a4a5-957ef7c1b563,
  abstract     = {{<p>We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO<sub>2</sub> flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rayner, P. J. and Koffi, E. and Scholze, M. and Kaminski, T. and Dufresne, J. L.}},
  issn         = {{1364-503X}},
  keywords     = {{Carbon cycle; Data assimilation; Terrestrial uptake}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{05}},
  number       = {{1943}},
  pages        = {{1955--1966}},
  publisher    = {{Royal Society Publishing}},
  series       = {{Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science}},
  title        = {{Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0378}},
  doi          = {{10.1098/rsta.2010.0378}},
  volume       = {{369}},
  year         = {{2011}},
}