Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change : An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta
(2025) In Global Environmental Change 95.- Abstract
Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes... (More)
Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.
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- author
- Dunn, Frances E. ; Haasnoot, Marjolijn ; Du, Haomiao ; Karabil, Star ; Minderhoud, Philip S.J. ; Schippers, Vincent ; Scown, Murray LU ; Triyanti, Annisa ; Vu, Trang and Middelkoop, Hans
- organization
- publishing date
- 2025-12
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Adaptation limits, Dynamic adaptive pathways planning, Relative sea-level rise
- in
- Global Environmental Change
- volume
- 95
- article number
- 103071
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105017820415
- ISSN
- 0959-3780
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 1a3b4349-914c-4362-8aa2-978df4c67854
- date added to LUP
- 2025-11-21 11:50:45
- date last changed
- 2025-11-21 11:51:50
@article{1a3b4349-914c-4362-8aa2-978df4c67854,
abstract = {{<p>Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.</p>}},
author = {{Dunn, Frances E. and Haasnoot, Marjolijn and Du, Haomiao and Karabil, Star and Minderhoud, Philip S.J. and Schippers, Vincent and Scown, Murray and Triyanti, Annisa and Vu, Trang and Middelkoop, Hans}},
issn = {{0959-3780}},
keywords = {{Adaptation limits; Dynamic adaptive pathways planning; Relative sea-level rise}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Global Environmental Change}},
title = {{Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change : An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071}},
volume = {{95}},
year = {{2025}},
}