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Projected changes in near-surface wind speed in the Arctic by a regional climate model

Akperov, Mirseid ; Zhang, Wenxin LU orcid ; Koenigk, Torben ; Eliseev, Alexey ; Semenov, Vladimir A. and Mokhov, Igor I. (2025) In Polar Science 43.
Abstract

This study investigates seasonal changes in near-surface wind speeds in the Arctic using the regional climate model (RCM) simulations with RCA4 driven by four global climate models (GCMs) CMIP5 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the RCM RCA-GUESS (RCA4 with interactive vegetation dynamics) is used to investigate the role of biogeophysical feedbacks in modulating near-surface wind speeds under different RCP scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in ocean surface roughness induced by sea-ice reduction leads to a projected increase in near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean, with the most pronounced effects occurring in autumn and winter. Overall, the projected changes in... (More)

This study investigates seasonal changes in near-surface wind speeds in the Arctic using the regional climate model (RCM) simulations with RCA4 driven by four global climate models (GCMs) CMIP5 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the RCM RCA-GUESS (RCA4 with interactive vegetation dynamics) is used to investigate the role of biogeophysical feedbacks in modulating near-surface wind speeds under different RCP scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in ocean surface roughness induced by sea-ice reduction leads to a projected increase in near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean, with the most pronounced effects occurring in autumn and winter. Overall, the projected changes in near-surface wind speeds from the RCM are consistent with the changes from the forcing GCMs though the RCM simulations show larger amplitude changes compared to the GCMs. The expansion of vegetation on land increases surface roughness and alters atmospheric circulation by modifying static stability and the land-sea temperature contrast, leading to changes in near-surface wind speeds. Specifically, wind speeds decrease over continental regions but increase over parts of the Arctic Ocean. This study emphasizes that interactive vegetation dynamics significantly influence changes in land surface properties and near-surface wind speeds. These processes should be incorporated into Earth system models to enhance the accuracy of future climate projections.

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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Arctic climate change, biogeophysical feedbacks, CORDEX, Near-surface wind speed, Regional climate models, Sea ice
in
Polar Science
volume
43
article number
101162
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85213526178
ISSN
1873-9652
DOI
10.1016/j.polar.2024.101162
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2024 Elsevier B.V. and NIPR
id
1b09af1e-6702-4b5e-b55f-8d514b571b68
date added to LUP
2025-03-16 19:10:34
date last changed
2025-04-04 15:09:10
@article{1b09af1e-6702-4b5e-b55f-8d514b571b68,
  abstract     = {{<p>This study investigates seasonal changes in near-surface wind speeds in the Arctic using the regional climate model (RCM) simulations with RCA4 driven by four global climate models (GCMs) CMIP5 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the RCM RCA-GUESS (RCA4 with interactive vegetation dynamics) is used to investigate the role of biogeophysical feedbacks in modulating near-surface wind speeds under different RCP scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in ocean surface roughness induced by sea-ice reduction leads to a projected increase in near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean, with the most pronounced effects occurring in autumn and winter. Overall, the projected changes in near-surface wind speeds from the RCM are consistent with the changes from the forcing GCMs though the RCM simulations show larger amplitude changes compared to the GCMs. The expansion of vegetation on land increases surface roughness and alters atmospheric circulation by modifying static stability and the land-sea temperature contrast, leading to changes in near-surface wind speeds. Specifically, wind speeds decrease over continental regions but increase over parts of the Arctic Ocean. This study emphasizes that interactive vegetation dynamics significantly influence changes in land surface properties and near-surface wind speeds. These processes should be incorporated into Earth system models to enhance the accuracy of future climate projections.</p>}},
  author       = {{Akperov, Mirseid and Zhang, Wenxin and Koenigk, Torben and Eliseev, Alexey and Semenov, Vladimir A. and Mokhov, Igor I.}},
  issn         = {{1873-9652}},
  keywords     = {{Arctic climate change; biogeophysical feedbacks; CORDEX; Near-surface wind speed; Regional climate models; Sea ice}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Polar Science}},
  title        = {{Projected changes in near-surface wind speed in the Arctic by a regional climate model}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2024.101162}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.polar.2024.101162}},
  volume       = {{43}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}